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Renck vs. Keeler: What are realistic expectations for Nuggets this season?

Troy Renck: The Nuggets spent more time talking about the apron than Betty Crocker this offseason. The luxury tax left them watching as other contenders made impact additions. Denver added Russell Westbrook off the clearance rack and took a flier on a more versatile big man, Dario Saric, to ease the regular season toll on Nikola Jokic. As long as Jokic wears a Nuggets jersey, Denver is a contender. But, Sean, what constitutes success this season? Is their championship window still open or do the free agent defections the past two summers temper expectations?

Sean Keeler: Can Betty light it up from the corner? Because Michael Malone could use a sharpshooter right now. Actually, he could use a couple. Hey, the title window’s open for as long as the Joker wants to wear blue and gold. Now, how much space that window has for the Nuggets to squeeze through depends on everybody else. And, to be frank, it’s the “everybody else” part that worries me. That and the fact that Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Dallas and Sacramento, on paper, all got better by yards while the Nuggets improved in feet.

Renck: The Nuggets winning 50 games is realistic. And a first-round series. After that, anything is possible for a floor or a ceiling. But Jokic’s brilliance is no longer enough to win a title. He needs Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to play like stars from post to post, not just in moments. This brings me to my key: Westbrook. Can the fiery guard ignite a spark in Murray, pushing him and challenging him in a way no one really has the last few years? If he does pull that off, this could be a special season. If Murray balks, then things will get awkward with many of us wondering who they are going to trade between MPJ and Murray next summer.

Keeler: As long as Jokic and Murray are healthy, 50 wins aren’t just assumed. They’re expected. But this team, and this era, aren’t judged on the regular season anymore. What will separate this campaign — and the next three or four years of the “window” — is what happens in April, May and June. And what doesn’t. Are the Nuggets the next Spurs? Or the next 2010-11 Mavs? Westbrook is a fascinating add to the bench unit, on several levels. But can that unit score enough, and shoot well enough, to keep the Nuggets in tilts before Joker and The Blue Arrow take over late? In a lineup of Westbrook-Strawther-Watson-Tyson-Saric, your big guy is arguably the best long-range marksman of the group. Which could make for some fun matchups … and some uncomfortable droughts, too.

Renck: It’s time for the real Christian Braun to stand up. Is he a lockdown defender? Is he a perimeter threat? Is he both? This would be his senior season at Kansas had he stayed in school. With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gone to Orlando, Braun will have a platform to shine. He brings the right effort, attitude and energy. But the Nuggets need him to knock down 3s. For as much as Westbrook could benefit the bench, he can’t shoot from the distance. Whether the Nuggets go out early in the playoffs or put together a deep run could hinge on Braun’s ability to knock down shots with open looks.

Keeler:  It’s not a hot take. It’s just math: On paper, Beastbrook as a sixth man/spot starter + Braun as a starting ‘2’ guard should be a better combo, statistically, than Reggie Jackson as a sixth man/spot starter + KCP as a starting wing guard. But this is still a shooter’s game in a make-or-miss league, despite all the deck-chair shuffling. According to NBA.com’s tracking, Jokic and KCP as a two-man combo made treys at a 36.5% clip during the ’23-24 regular season, while the Joker-Braun combo was just 27.2%. You get that second number up, say, six points? In the 34% range? Now we’re cookin’. If CB can turn into CB3, this spring could morph into another magic carpet ride.

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