Troy Renck: The cold was giving way to the darkness as the Broncos walked to their team bus in Orchard Park, N.Y., the raw afternoon and a sobbing autograph seeker signaling the end of Denver’s season. There is no quaint location when the lights go out, least of all upstate New York with the Bills’ fight song ringing in the ears. It raises an interesting question as the NFL reaches its final four and college football decides its best team: Which pro sports coach will lead Colorado to its next championship? Sean, because delusion is not part of this exercise, Rockies manager Bud Black is excluded. The race is between the Broncos’ Sean Payton, the Nuggets’ Michael Malone and the Avs’ Jared Bednar, all of whom have a title on their resume.
Sean Keeler: How dare you sell Buddy short, my friend! A little bird in Greeley told me he thinks the Rox will hit .400 this year. Not as a team, but in terms of winning percentage. (Baby steps.) If we could include colleges, and I say this with a straight face, the correct answer is Deion Sanders. If he stays. The Big 12 is — well, it’s not great, Bob. But if it’s down to Payton, Malone and Bednar, who’ve been there before, I’ll say Malone is the one who’s the first to get there next. Why? The Avs are good but won’t be elite while they’re stuck waiting out Gabe and Val. Payton has a young team on the climb but has to figure out a way to consistently beat Patrick Mahomes over the next six to eight years. Malone’s got a Mahomes of his own in Nikola Jokic, a unicorn at the height of his powers. Right now.
Renck: All three boast interesting pieces that provide a path to title — Jokic, Nathan MacKinnon and Bo Nix. Nix, at first blush, doesn’t belong in the same company as reigning MVPs, but good quarterback play is a great multiplier in the NFL, meaning he has a puncher’s chance the next few years. The difference? Jokic and MacKinnon are in their championship window right now. The Avs possess the best chance. Here’s why: A hot goalie can steal a series. If not two (looking at you, Mackenzie Blackwood). Given the Avs’ dynamic offense, this makes them incredibly dangerous. They are no longer favorites but possess pieces shared by teams that raise the Cup and a coach who has lived in that snapshot once.
Keeler: Insanely good pieces. The Avs locker room is home to two of the top five hockey players on the planet. But here’s the problem: Being top-heavy can propel you through the regular season, but the Stanley Cup Playoffs are a different beast. Your bottom two lines have to carry the flag. So do your special teams. Before MLK Day, the Avs had managed just three power-play goals over 28 attempts with the extra man. Their power play percentage as of Sunday night was 21.1, which ranked 17th in the NHL. Since 2017, there’ve been eight Stanley Cup champs. Only two put up a conversion rate on the PP of lower than 22% during the regular season.
Renck: Here’s where the conversation gets interesting. If the Nuggets and Avs don’t win in the next two years, Payton becomes the new favorite. This is why the trade deadline becomes fascinating. Can the Nuggets win a series against Oklahoma City or the Boston Celtics as comprised? Same goes for the Avs. How do they beat the Oilers or Stars to even reach the finals? Beyond Valeri Nichushkin’s absences, the Avs’ have been doomed by blue line breakdowns. It’s on Bednar to keep the group tight while leaning on Blackwood to reach his untapped potential on the biggest stage. It won’t be easy, but his path is cleaner than the roads that Malone and Payton must navigate.
Keeler: SGA and the Thunder remind me of the Nuggets four years ago. Which is both a compliment to OKC and a reminder of just how high Malone and Company have to climb. Call me crazy, but even if I don’t believe in Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, I still believe in Bubble Jamal. And I still believe Malone can coax that out of No. 27, in the spring, against a relentless, deep Western Conference. For the Nuggets to throw a parade again, he’ll have to.
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