Don’t take the wag out of the puppy’s tail.
Nobody wants Sean Payton to become too conservative with Bo Nix. He needs enough leash to make plays.
However, there remains a middle ground where the coach trusts Nix, while the quarterback regains his rhythm. By any measure, Nix has exceeded expectations this season with 20 passing touchdowns, making him only the second Broncos quarterback to reach this mark since 2014.
The Broncos have their franchise quarterback. Payton made the right choice in the draft. But how Nix responds to mistakes will dictate his ceiling and how far he can take them this season.
The Broncos need one win in their last three games to reach the playoffs. Nix is not looking at it like that.
“Yeah, we’ve got three games to win three, go to the playoffs and win the Super Bowl,” Nix said as he walked off the podium.
It is a bold strategy, Cotton. But it’s why we like him. His competitive fire is an inferno.
Doubt Nix at your own peril. I don’t, not even a little after the last two games. A blemish exists on his resume. He must correct it. And he will because it is what he does. And already did in college.
First, let’s acknowledge the trend. While Nix has shown the ability to adjust from game to game, he must improve with adjustments in games where he throws an interception. Especially with the stakes higher and the opponents better.
Nix has thrown his 11 interceptions in six games, including one against the Chargers on Oct. 13. The Broncos feature a 2-4 record in those games, compared to 7-1 when he does not throw a pick. Miss me with the, “just don’t commit turnovers then.” If it were easy to take chances and take care of the ball, Nix would not be the Broncos’ 13th quarterback since Peyton Manning retired.
The key is finding his footing, literally and figuratively, when things get sideways. The statistics articulate this challenge. In the games where Nix has thrown an interception, he’s completed 97 of 162 passes (59.8%) for 1,042 yards and five touchdowns. His TD-to-pick ratio is underwater (5 to 11).
In the games without an interception, he has completed 200 of 305 (65.6%) for 1,930 yards and 15 touchdowns (15-to-0).
After the loss to the Steelers, he had two interceptions over a 10-game stretch. He has five over the past two games.
The difference between Bad Bo and The Bo Show is real.
“I have been with Drew (Brees) when he threw five interceptions in a game. There are guys who can handle it. You have to be able to handle success and adversity. It never concerns me that, ‘Oh my gosh Bo’s going to go in the tank,’” said offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who explained that encouragement is offered during games, with advice on mechanics saved for practice. “That never crosses my mind. He’s going to get onto the next play.”
With all due respect to the defense — the group boasts 11 takeaways during the four-game win streak — the Broncos need Nix to rebound more quickly as they punch up in weight class.
The Chargers qualify. As do the Bengals with their offense and, clearly, the two-time defending champion Chiefs.
Watching video from Sunday, Nix fell into bad habits. Throwing works from the ground up, and he was not consistently setting his feet even when he had time. He also tried to do too much. This is how he ran into problems at Auburn. He was viewed as the Tigers’ savior and became too injured, too ineffective.
When Nix arrived at Oregon, his mental scars were visible in how he played. He was tentative, afraid to make a mistake in spring practice. Coordinator Kenny Dillingham, now the Arizona State head coach, gave him ownership of the offense. But it wasn’t until a nightmarish opening-day loss to Georgia — 21 of 37, two interceptions — that Nix finally adopted a new mindset. In his next 26 games, he posted 74 touchdowns with eight picks.
“When I was with him that year at Oregon, he was still making that transition of letting things go and having a short memory,” said Broncos lineman Alex Forsyth. “When he was at Auburn he had a tougher time doing that. But it just comes with playing more games and maturing. He had a rough one in the season opener at Georgia. And after that, he just kind of began flushing the bad plays and it started giving him more confidence in all the good plays he was making. You could definitely see it.”
Nix is in the process of building this bridge as a pro. Payton does not allow much time for grace. The next pity party he throws for a player will be the first. While Payton has fallen on the sword for Nix after bad games, Nix has done his part by exhibiting the right body language and mentality.
Payton does not want to gulp dramamine watching his quarterback. He seeks maturity, treating the next play as the big play.
“I have a lot of reps at it. I have had many mistakes in my lifetime, going all the way back to seventh grade when I started playing. Throw a pick, you have to move on. I have done the opposite and shown bad body language,” Nix said. “It’s about reps, resilience, knowing you are going to get another new opportunity.”
It arrives Thursday in Los Angeles. Win and they are in. But this game is about a broader picture, about Nix showing he can respond to a mistake without throwing another pick. All the evidence and experience suggest he can do this.
“There are going to be ups and downs,” Payton said. “You are still pulling the trigger.”
Let the tail wag. Trust the kid.
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