WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W. Va. — The Greenbrier Resort sits on 11,000 acres and features four golf courses, 20 dining options and one coach with an office. Sean Payton helped design the football footprint that led the New Orleans Saints to escape the heat, if not the internet, for three straight training camps here beginning in 2014.
As Payton rode around in his golf cart surveying the grounds this week, often flanked by family and friends, it is clear why he loves West Virginia.
But with apologies to John Denver, Payton’s “almost heaven” almost never happened. As the Broncos prepare to face the New York Jets, it is fascinating to consider the butterfly effect when looking at the franchise’s history over the past two years.
What if hiring Nathaniel Hackett would have resulted in Denver acquiring Aaron Rodgers, as was the fingers-crossed hope when he took the job?
For starters, there would have been no Russell Wilson, no toxic positivity, no high knees, no cringey and spicy Subway commercials, no $245 million contract extension — and no games that made the forward pass look more difficult than negotiating peace in the Middle East.
But Rodgers becoming a Bronco would mean Hackett, the John C. Reilly to his Will Ferrell, would still be in Denver. Say that sentence out loud and try not to laugh. Or cry.
It raises the question: What position would you rather be in Broncos Country? Watching a 40-year-old Rodgers lead your franchise with Hackett on the headset? Or Payton in charge of developing Bo Nix as the key component of a rebuild?
Even now, I don’t hesitate, I would rather have Payton and Nix. Not because I have confidence in this pairing, but because it mercifully introduced a reset button that should have been hit after the 2017 season. The Walton-Penner group turned to Payton after Jim Harbaugh stayed in Michigan and DeMeco Ryans went to Houston. He was charged with cleaning up Hackett’s mess, transforming Sesame Street into Compete Street. Payton created accountability, infused discipline, but did not deliver the number of wins anticipated in his first season. An 8-9 record represented a three-game improvement but fell well short of the playoffs.
Practicing beneath the rolling hills and changing leaves in soggy West Virginia, the Broncos believe they are finding traction. Nix is coming off his best game, his first win.
“He plays with swagger,” right guard Quinn Meinerz said. “Since the first day I met him, I was excited to see how he was going to handle these moments and he has done nothing but consistently exceed expectations.”
Payton has asked too much of him — he ranks fourth in dropbacks — but the game is starting to slow down for Nix with his eyes and his feet. Progress is happening, an encouraging sign for Payton, who desperately needs this to work. A reboot was needed. But if Nix fizzles, the Broncos will be hitting CTRL-ALT-DEL with a new coach after the 2025 or ’26 season.
Still, that risk outweighs the Broncos featuring Rodgers and Hackett right now. Or, more specifically, Rodgers. Hackett is his sidecar, hanging around to put gas in the tank and gas him up on command. When Rodgers rides into town, he takes over everything. Would you be comfortable with him as the face of the Broncos, the voice on all topics, including, but not limited to, cover-two defenses, young receivers, UFOs, vaccines, presidential candidates and darkness retreats?
NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers, left, and Aubrey Marcus, right, talk in the Bellco Theatre during an event entitled “How Psychedelics can unlock elite performance” at the Colorado Convention Center on June 21, 2023, in Denver. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post)
None of the conspiracy theory stuff would have mattered if Rodgers won. But that’s where the inflection point comes for me. There is no doubt the Broncos would be better with Rodgers, even this version of him. He is a four-time MVP capable of making throws not seen in Denver since John Elway retired.
But the Rodgers-Hackett duo only works over Payton-Nix if the former reaches a Super Bowl. I would not hold them to the standard of winning it, just getting there. That was never going to happen with the Kansas City Chiefs functioning as resident dream crushers.
So, how would you feel about a pair of 11-6 records and two playoff wins in three years, delaying the inevitable drafting of a rookie quarterback? The floor would rise with Rodgers in Denver, health willing. But the ceiling wouldn’t be high enough. A few wild-card postseason victories are not worth waiting to start a youth movement. And even that would have likely come with considerable consternation and distractions because of the possibility Rodgers would have still suffered the same catastrophic Achilles tear that sank his first season in New York after four snaps.
New York Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, left, talks with quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) at a practice at the NFL football team’s training facility in Florham Park, N.J., Tuesday, July 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
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Granted, it feels like it would have been worth the pain, literally and figuratively, after eight straight years without a playoff berth and seven straight losing seasons. But, let’s consider the ramifications. Rodgers exits following the 2025 season with no title. After he retires, Hackett gets one season with a bridge quarterback and is exposed as a fraud and fired. That leaves the Broncos starting over in 2027 with a first-rounder under center.
The counterargument, of course, is that Rodgers would have become Peyton Manning: The Sequel, attracting free agents and winning a Super Bowl. The problem with this thinking is that Rodgers had the best team in the NFC multiple times and has one ring and a single Super Bowl appearance. The idea of him exceeding expectations at ages 40 and 41 doesn’t fit.
The Broncos certainly saw the shape of their future change when Rodgers remained in Green Bay in the spring of 2022 with a new contract. They knew it was coming for a few weeks and quickly pivoted to Wilson, a decision that continues to haunt them and their salary cap. Coupling him with Hackett created the worst duo since Lou Reed and Metallica.
Rodgers’ decision to stay in Green Bay altered the trajectory of multiple franchises. It changed Denver’s future. But in the end, Denver not acquiring him will allow Payton and Nix an opportunity to escape the franchise’s ugly past for years to come.
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10), left, talks with Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton during warm-ups before a preseason game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Aug. 11, 2024. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
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