The MLB winter free agency period opened this week, and while it’s generally too early for anything of significance to come down, the Red Sox did pull off an eye-opening move to get things started. That’s because, when it comes to filling out the team’s starting rotation for next season, there is expected to be a more-the-merrier vibe to Boston’s staff.
But there was not expected to be a heavy focus on keeping in place the team’s current core of pitchers.
By the time the Red Sox’s 2024 season wrapped up, it was clear they had three rotation pieces in place: Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and perhaps the best of the bunch, Tanner Houck. They also have last year’s top pitching signing, Lucas Giolito, who injured his elbow in spring training, waiting in the wings.
There’s also the question of Garrett Whitlock, who was very good in four starts before injuring his elbow. He should be back early in the 2025 season, though maybe as a bullpen piece.
The feeling from there was that the Red Sox would add one front-line starter this winter, a pitcher with true ace potential who could be had in a trade, such as Garrett Crochet from the White Sox. And many felt Boston would add another free agent on top of that.
But what few expected was that the Red Sox would give veteran Nick Pivetta, who was inconsistent and finished at 6-12 with a 4.14 ERA this season, the $21 million qualifying offer. Yet, this week, that’s just what CBO Craig Breslow and the Red Sox did.
Nick Pivetta’s Value in Question
At 31 years old, it’s a stretch to say Pivetta is worth a $21 million contract. He is coming off a one-year, $7.5 million contract with the Red Sox this year, and the QO represents tripling his salary.
That created some waves around the league. On “The Fenway Rundown” podcast from MassLive beat writers Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo, the move was called “shocking.”
“The big news is a development I would describe as shocking. Not capital-S shocking but definitely in our world it was, Nick Pivetta gets the qualifying offer from the Red Sox,” Cotillo said. “That was interesting just because it wasn’t, as the kids say, on the bingo card. Sean called me immediately in shock, almost, about what happened and why they had done it.”
McAdam added: “I was completely surprised, I did not see that coming at all. I thought if there was a small chance of offering the qualifying offer at all, it was going to go to (outfielder) Tyler O’Neill. I think you could better make the case that that is a better allocation of $21 million. It would have been an overpay for O’Neill, certainly, but I think it is also an overpay for Pivetta.”
Red Sox May Be Proven Wise in QO Decision
Still, there is smart a case to be made for giving Pivetta the qualifying offer. The Red Sox are probably betting that he will not accept the offer, and will look for a long-term deal elsewhere. If that happens and he signs for more than $50 million, the Red Sox will be gifted a draft pick, likely after the second round.
The danger is that Pivetta could accept the QO, leaving the Red Sox on the hook for one year at what looks like a huge overpay. But around the league, Pivetta commands more respect than he gets in Boston, where his inconsistency is a problem.
At Spotrac, Pivetta is projected to warrant a four-year, $60 million contract. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects him to get three years, $63 million—basically, the QO in each of the next three seasons. Either way, if that’s where Pivetta’s market is heading, the Red Sox did a very wise thing in extending the qualifying offer.
He’ll leave, but Boston will add something around a Top 100 pick as he does.
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