Erik Karlsson’s future is not certain in Pittsburgh, but he will likely open the season as a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The future Hall of Fame defenseman could find a new home as early as during the season, according to Josh Yohe of The Athletic.
Yohe took questions and answered them via a mailbag. In his story, he indicated that Karlsson’s future likely involves a midseason trade if the Penguins can’t repeat last season’s magic. If the Penguins can keep up last season’s level of play, Karlsson would likely remain on the team. Still, Yohe considers him unlikely to be an extension candidate.
Erik Karlsson is Back and Better Than Ever
That might be a small exaggeration, but Karlsson, 36, was phenomenal last season. If he can build off of last season’s play, it’s a likely win-win for the Penguins. If last season’s play is an indication of Erik Karlsson’s future in the near-term, the Penguins are in good shape.
Karlsson finished last season with 15 goals and 51 assists for 66 points in 75 games. It was his highest point total in three seasons in Pittsburgh and his best points-per-game output, too. His metrics in the regular season were across-the-board good, according to HockeyStatCards. In terms of two-way play, it was likely Karlsson’s best season since his first year in San Jose in 2018-19. By per-60-minute rate stats, Karlsson put up some of the best defensive numbers of his career.
Karlsson seemed to mesh with Dan Muse and the Penguins coaching staff, which should provide plenty of reason for Penguins fans to stay optimistic after a surprisingly strong run in 2025-26.
Why Erik Karlsson’s Future is in Question
There may not be a team with a more unique current outlook than the Pittsburgh Penguins, and that will impact Erik Karlsson’s future.
The Penguins were one of the only teams to open 2025-26 openly accepting of a strategic step back to improve their long-term outlook. They were near the bottom of the standings in virtually every prediction to open last season. They responded by comfortably making the playoffs with their aging core and rookie head coach.
It was fun for fans. Their play brought playoff hockey back to Pittsburgh. It brought playoff hockey back to Pittsburgh’s aging trio of stars in Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. Many fans thought they wouldn’t see it again during the Crosby era. And if they did, they certainly didn’t think they’d see it so quickly.
Father Time, though, is undefeated. The Penguins’ reality remains grim in the short-term. Even with a savvy general manager, rising head coach and one of the greatest players in NHL history still performing well, the Penguins’ 2026-27 outlook is cloudy. The murky nature of their season calls into question whether Erik Karlsson will finish the season in Pittsburgh. Even if the Penguins replicate what they did last year, the long-term outlook likely means Erik Karlsson’s future is outside of the Steel City.
The Penguins’ Playoff Chances
Pittsburgh getting back to the playoffs will require Karlsson to repeat his strong play from last season. That’s not out of the question, particularly as Pittsburgh made intriguing additions to their blue line, including Trevor van Riemsdyk. It’s plausible he could partner with Karlsson.
In addition to strong play from Karlsson, Pittsburgh needs a healthy Crosby and Malkin. The two missed a surprising amount of time last season, but only five games simultaneously. Some of that was after the Penguins clinched a playoff spot last season, but ultimately, without both players, the Penguins were 1-3-1. That’s notable considering Crosby missed 14 games, and Malkin missed 26. It was the most games Crosby missed in a single season since 2019-20. For Malkin, it was his most missed games since missing 41 in 2021-22.
Injury issues aside, the Penguins will likely have a hard time replicating their success without improvements in net. The Penguins were 20th in the NHL in team save percentage at five-on-five and 22nd in the NHL in all situations. The goaltending will look different this season, with prospect Sergei Murashov expected to step into an NHL role.
Murashov, who starred in ECHL Wheeling and AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton over the past two seasons, drew high praise from Wheeling’s play-by-play broadcaster and new VP DJ Abisalih. The young Russian will need to help bolster Arturs Silovs if Pittsburgh wants to return to the playoffs.
Could Karlsson Stay in Pittsburgh?
Erik Karlsson’s future seems likely to be in another city. But is there a scenario where he returns? Perhaps if the Penguins win a playoff round or two, that could be possible. Another plausible scenario: Karlsson decides he wants to take a major pay cut to stay in Pittsburgh.
One issue noted in Yohe’s mailbag: Karlsson has never won a Stanley Cup. He might need to see this as a realistic option to consider returning to Pittsburgh.
Does Erik Karlsson Finish the Season Somewhere Else?
That’s the likely future if the Penguins are out of a playoff spot. Pittsburgh, regardless of what they do on NHL ice, is in asset accumulation mode. If Karlsson is playing well and the Penguins are not, he will likely command a strong price on the rental market.
Pittsburgh would almost certainly have to retain money to facilitate a trade. Interested potential parties could include a reunion with Ottawa. Outside of the Senators, could San Jose also be interested in a short-term reunion to bolster its playoff chances?
Additional parties of note could include Anaheim, Carolina, Dallas, Edmonton and Washington. Those are teams that have either reportedly expressed interest in the past or could show interest due to a combination of factors.
Erik Karlsson’s future seems uncertain, except for the part where it won’t be in Pittsburgh.
Like HEAVY’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on HEAVY
The post Penguins Insider: Karlsson’s Future Likely Elsewhere appeared first on HEAVY.