Best Bet
Chiefs at Bills
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Bills by 2.
Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 9-0/5-4; Bills 8-2/6-4.
Patrick Mahomes deserves all the credit he gets for his magnificent success in seven seasons with the Chiefs — three Super Bowl championships, an 83-22 record in the regular season, 15-3 in the postseason and two MVP awards. Nobody wins shootouts like Mahomes — he’s 17-13 (.567) when the Chiefs allow 27 or more points. No other active quarterback is over .500 in that category, including Lamar Jackson (8-12), Josh Allen (6-12), Joe Burrow (2-15) and Aaron Rodgers (21-51). Bears quarterbacks in that span are 1-32.
But since he was drafted No. 10 overall by the Chiefs instead of No. 2 by the Bears in 2017, Mahomes has had a knack for being at the right place at the right time. He makes his own breaks, but he gets a ton of them.
It’s uncanny how often fate seems to move its huge hands in Mahomes’ favor. The latest example was Sunday, when Mahomes was outplayed by Broncos rookie Bo Nix but still came out a winner when the Chiefs blocked Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal as time expired.
Credit Chiefs’ special-teams coordinator Dave Toub for exploiting a weakness the Chiefs discovered earlier in the game. Mahomes couldn’t have won without it.
The Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl championships have been particularly impressive because they’ve come despite a salary-cap crunch that robbed Mahomes of offensive support. But he has had help. In last year’s Super Bowl, the two oddest events of the game both favored Mahomes — 49ers’ Dre Greenlaw tearing his Achilles running onto the field in the second quarter, and a Chiefs 40-yard punt turning into gold when it hit a 49ers player and the Chiefs recovered, setting up Mahomes for a 16-yard touchdown pass that gave the Chiefs a 13-10 lead late in the third quarter.
Mahomes is much more good than he is lucky. But somebody up there likes him. Neither the Chiefs nor Andy Reid seemed to get these kinds of breaks before he arrived. In fact, in the Chiefs’ last playoff game pre-Mahomes, the Chiefs lost to the Titans when Marcus Mariota threw a touchdown pass to himself — a pass was deflected by a Chiefs player right back to him. And when Mariota fumbled on a sack, the turnover was nullified when an official inexplicably — and incorrectly — ruled that Mariota’s forward progress had been stopped.
Mahomes took over the next season, and the ball has been bouncing the Chiefs’ way ever since. Some guys got it and some don’t.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Bills 28.
TOP PLAYS
RAMS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Rams by 4½.
Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Rans 4-5/3-6; Patriots 3-7/4-5-1.
Outlook: The fully loaded Rams crapped out in mystifying fashion against the Dolphins at home last week —failing to score a touchdown in a 23-15 loss after having averaged 25.3 points in a three-game winning streak. They’ll be primed to atone for that misstep against a Patriots team that isn’t as good as it thinks after upsetting the struggling Bears last week.
Pick: Rams 30, Patriots 17.
BROWNS at SAINTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Saints by 1.
Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 2-7/3-6; Saints 3-7/4-6.
Outlook: Saints snapped a seven-game losing streak in a 20-17 win over the Falcons in interim coach Darren Rizzi’s first game since Dennis Allen was fired. Always a chance for a letdown after that — especially with the Browns coming off a bye and ex-Saints QB Jameis Winston returning to New Orleans, but not as likely at home.
Pick: Saints 24, Browns 16.
FALCONS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Broncos by 2½.
Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 6-4/5-5; Broncos 5-5/7-3.
Outlook: Broncos are on steam and Sean Payton figures to have his team laser-focused after blaming himself for a breakdown that led to Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal getting blocked on the final play of a 16-14 loss the Chiefs. Falcons also are coming off a tough loss but are in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Pick: Broncos 22, Falcons 17.
OTHER GAMES
PACKERS at BEARS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 5½. Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 6-3/4-5; Bears 4-5/4-4-1.
Outlook: The Bears are reeling with three consecutive losses but are candidates for a fire-the-coordinator bump after OC Shane Waldron was replaced by passing-game coordinator Thomas Brown. On the other hand, the Bears have lost 10 straight to the Packers (0-10 ATS) and Jordan Love has passer ratings of 128.6 (a career-high) and 123.2 vs. the Bears, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs.
Pick: Packers 24, Bears 17.
VIKINGS at TITANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Vikings by 6. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 7-2/6-3; Titans 2-7/1-8.
Outlook: The clock seemed to strike midnight on Vikings reborn QB Sam Darnold last week — 3 INTs without a TD pass for a season-low 48.2 rating in a 12-7 victory against the Jaguars. The last time Darnold was that bad, he responded with a solid performance (22 of 27, 259, 1 TD, 1 INT, 103.5 rating) in a 31-29 loss to the Lions. So Kevin O’Connell gets the benefit of the doubt.
Pick: Vikings 26, Titans 17.
JAGUARS at LIONS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Lions by 14. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 2-8/6-4; Lions 8-1/7-2.
Outlook: Lions are coming off yet another high after rallying from a 23-7 halftime deficit to the AFC South-leading Texans on the road to win 26-23. They could be due for a letdown, but coach Dan Campbell won’t allow it. Lions are at home for only the second time since Week 4 — they’ll be primed for a big effort. Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games — covering the last four — despite being 2-5 SU.
Pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 10.
RAVENS at STEELERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 48.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 7-3/5-4-1; Steelers 7-2/7-2.
Outlook: Russell Wilson isn’t in his prime, but he hasn’t lost his ability to find a way to win. The Steelers are 3-0 with Wilson starting after Wilson threw a 32-yard touchdown pass to another Old Goat — former Chargers receiver Mike Williams — to beat the Commanders 28-27 last week. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 with a 66.3 rating (4 TDs, 7 INTs) vs. the Steelers.
Pick: Steelers 26, Ravens 23.
RAIDERS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon.
Line: Dolphins by 7½. Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-7/4-5; Dolphins 3-6/3-6.
Outlook: After allowing 30 and 28 points in losses to the Bills and Cardinals, the Dolphins held the Rams — with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp — to five field goals in a 23-15 upset last week. The fading Raiders have lost five straight (2-3 ATS).
Pick: Dolphins 20, Raiders 16.
COLTS at JETS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jets by 4. Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 4-6/7-3; Jets 3-7/3-7.
Outlook: Shane Steichen is turning to Anthony Richardson — again — after losing to the Vikings and Bills with Joe Flacco. The last time Richardson returned, the Colts beat the Dolphins, but not because of Richardson, who was 10 of 24 for 129 yards and a 59.2 rating.
Pick: Jets 16, Colts 10.
SEAHAWKS at 49ERS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 6½. Total: 48.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 4-5/2-6-1; 49ers 5-4/4-5.
Outlook: Christian McCaffrey seems to bring out the best in 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who had his best game of the season — 25 of 36, 353 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs for a 119.3 rating in a 23-20 victory against the Buccaneers.
Pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 17.
BENGALS at CHARGERS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Chargers by 1½. Total: 48.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 4-6/6-4; Chargers 6-3/6-3.
Outlook: The Chargers have allowed 20 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games. But that streak is in jeopardy against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who have scored 35 and 41 points in their last two games.
Pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 24.
TEXANS at COWBOYS
Time: 7:15 p.m., Monday, ESPN/ABC 7.
Line: Texans by 7½. Total: 42.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 6-4/4-5-1; Cowboys 3-6/2-6-1.
Outlook: Trey Lance can’t fall much further. He couldn’t play in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Now he can’t beat out Cooper Rush, who is expected to start again after an unimpressive game (13-for-23, 45 yards) vs. the Eagles.
Pick: Texans 24, Cowboys 14.