The Democratic nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris to take on former President Donald Trump dealt a setback to California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s own White House ambitions, which he never publicly admitted, but boldly telegraphed by taking on Republicans across the country.
But with Harris’ loss to Trump in Tuesday’s election, they’re back in play.
Democrats are grieving and searching for answers after an election that saw their nemesis reclaim the presidency while his fellow Republicans gained control of the Senate and may hold the House as well.
But one thing is clear: With the defeat of Harris, Newsom is all but certain to run for president in 2028, political insiders say.
“It was a very good night for Gavin Newsom,” said Bill Whalen, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and former speechwriter for Republican Gov. Pete Wilson. “He’ll never tell you that, but look, now suddenly, the road to 2028 is open again.”
Newsom hasn’t talked about a possible presidential bid since the election, and a spokesperson wouldn’t comment when asked if the governor is planning to run.
But it’s no secret among California politicos that he’s already auditioning for the nation’s highest office.
Less certain, however, is how competitive Newsom would be in a field likely to include a number of other rising Democratic stars — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer — and in a country that just declined Harris, a Bay Area liberal like himself.
Locally and nationally, anger over inflation and crime has fueled enthusiasm for Republicans and conservative priorities. Newsom, meanwhile, is a national standard-bearer of Bay Area liberal politics, a role he’s leaning into as Trump prepares to take office. Unless the national mood shifted, he’d probably face an uphill battle if he did run in four years, according to some strategists on both sides of the aisle.
“The U.S. will not elect a president from the San Francisco Bay Area, I think that that was proven this week,” said Republican political consultant Matt Shupe, who worked on the 2021 effort to recall Newsom. “I think that they are delusional to think that Gavin Newsom will become president. But I am sure that they’re going to try.”
“Gavin Newsom has wanted to run for president since he was 12 years old,” said longtime Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio. But Newsom is no longer very popular even in his deep-blue home state, he said, and probably wouldn’t be a front-runner in the next Democratic primary.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Zoe Lofgren react as balloons drop after Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris’s speech during the Democratic National Convention on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
A Public Policy Institute of California poll in October found only 47% of California likely voters approve of Newsom’s performance as governor, down from 52% shortly before he won reelection two years earlier.
Newsom’s final term expires in 2027, and he has increasingly turned his attention to the national stage as governor. He has sounded off on red state policy issues and debated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a once-hyped candidate for president whom Trump demolished in the Republican primary this year.
This year, Newsom established himself as a national fundraising giant for other Democratic candidates. His political action committee, Campaign for Democracy, raised more than $15 million in 2024 for Harris and congressional candidates in California, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and more, Politico reported.
He also stumped for President Joe Biden this summer in key swing states — even while Democratic strategists were privately floating him as a possible replacement for Biden, who ended his reelection bid in July. Party delegates then nominated Harris, Newsom’s longtime political colleague in California.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom campaigns for President Joe Biden at the Van Buren County Democratic Party’s “BBQ for Biden-Harris” event on July 4, 2024, in South Haven, Michigan. (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images/TNS)
With Trump once again taking the reins of American democracy, Newsom has wasted no time in positioning himself as a national opposition leader, as pundits expected. On Thursday, the governor issued a proclamation calling for a special session of the state Legislature “to protect civil rights, reproductive freedom, climate action, and immigrant families” from the next Trump administration.
“The freedoms we hold dear in California are under attack — and we won’t sit idle,” Newsom said in a news release. “California has faced this challenge before, and we know how to respond.”
And on Friday, Newsom hosted a Zoom call to talk about “what we plan to do in California to stand with states across our nation to defend our Constitution and uphold the rule of law,” inviting supporters to join and share thoughts.
“California is going to become the capital of blue America,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “And the lights will be shining brightly on Gavin Newsom.”
Newsom is naturally suited for that position, Kousser added, and he’ll become one of the most prominent liberal politicians in the United States at a time when Democrats have a leadership void to fill.
But Kousser and others said that voters are apparently losing enthusiasm for Newsom’s brand of politics in his home state.
Statewide, though ballots still are being tallied, Trump appears to have made gains Tuesday, running 18 percentage points behind Harris in the heavily Democratic Golden State he lost by 20 points to Joe Biden in 2020. Voters overwhelmingly approved a proposition to toughen penalties for some drug possession and shoplifting offenses — a political defeat for Newsom, who strongly opposed it. Discontent with crime, homelessness and exorbitant gas prices remain sore spots for voters, despite Newsom’s attempts to address them.
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That doesn’t bode well for the governor and California Democrats, Maviglio, the strategist, said.
“It should be a wake-up call,” Maviglio said. “They’ve alienated a large swath of voters who are looking around and seeing government is not working, and they’re looking for an alternative.”
But other Democratic insiders say Newsom can’t be written off as a contender in the presidential primary — it’s too soon to be certain either way, they said.
Bob Mulholland, a veteran strategist for former Gov. Jerry Brown, thinks Newsom is a “viable candidate.” His run would hinge on the state of California’s economy over the next few years, he added — and a lot can happen in four years to bolster his chances.
“What is conventional wisdom one day,” Mulholland said, “may be completely reversed the next day.”