As the Bears dream of a world in which they hire the perfect coach, quarterback Caleb Williams ascends to stardom and they finally get everything right, the rest of the NFC North is already there.
Nearly three years after general manager Ryan Poles declared his intent to “take the North and never give it back,” the Bears have never been farther away from doing so.
They’re about to finish fourth in the division for the third consecutive season under Poles, and if they lose to the Packers on Sunday at Lambeau Field, they’ll end the season eight games behind the rest of the pack as the Lions and Vikings battle for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. Since the NFL created this division in 2002, the Bears have never been buried this deep in the basement.
All their hope is rooted in things yet to take place. They’re banking on a yet-to-be-hired coach who helps rather than hinders. They’re betting on Williams becoming a quarterback who shores up weaknesses rather than succumbs to them. And they’re counting on making a roster overhaul with ample salary-cap space and valuable draft capital.
OK, great, but guess what: The Lions, Vikings and Packers already have answers at coach and quarterback — not to mention strong offensive lines and excellent defenses — and have similarly stacked future assets to maintain their momentum.
The NFL is a zero-sum game, especially within the division, and rebuilding is competitive. Every success outside Halas Hall hurts the Bears, and not only do they have to solve their own problems, but they have to solve them better than their peers.
That’s not going well so far.
“We’ve got a long way to go,” tight end Cole Kmet said Monday. “That’s just being honest about where we’re at and where the division’s at: Three really good teams right now and they’re all playing their own style, their own really good brand of football.”
The Vikings go into the final week at 14-2, and the Lions were 13-2 heading into their game Monday night against the 49ers. The Packers are 11-5 and could beat either of them.
The Lions and Vikings already have swept the Bears. If the Packers, who are a nine-point favorite, follow suit, the Bears will go winless in the division for the second time in three seasons under Poles. That previously happened just twice in franchise history.
Each of the other three North teams has its answer at head coach for the foreseeable future in the Packers’ Matt LaFleur (67-32 career record), the Lions’ Dan Campbell (42-35-1) and the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell (34-16). The Bears don’t even have a coach for 2025, which is still better than if they’d kept Matt Eberflus (14-32).
The other three teams all have a quarterback, too, and while their long-term viability varies, they’re all presently well ahead of Williams as he wraps up his rookie season.
“I still stand by Caleb being super talented, and he’s got all the tools that you need, but… all of those teams have experienced guys who have kind of been through it, so they’ve definitely got a jump start on him,” Kmet said. “But you see the biggest jumps in guys from Year 1 to Year 2, and I’m sure Caleb is gearing up for that.”
The Lions’ Jared Goff is having a career year with a 112.2 passer rating and is signed through 2028. The Packers’ Jordan Love has thrown the fourth-most touchdown passes (57) in the league over the last two seasons and also is signed through ’28. The Vikings are getting MVP-worthy production out of journeyman Sam Darnold, who is top-five in several categories, and have No. 10 pick J.J. McCarthy waiting his turn while injured.
Williams, who is 23rd in passer rating at 87.4 and threw for just 122 yards in the loss to the Seahawks last week, might get there eventually, but that notion requires faith. The other three starters in the North are delivering concrete proof every week.
And here’s the brutal part for the Bears: While they have a great opportunity ahead with three draft picks in the first two rounds and the fifth-most projected cap space, that doesn’t make them special.
The Bears could find instant starters with picks currently slotted at Nos. 9, 37 and 40 overall and fix deficiencies if they spend their $82 million well, but the other three North teams each still have their first-round pick in the upcoming draft and are top-11 in projected cap space.
That means none of the Vikings, Lions and Packers have gone for broke to get here. The Lions did it by hitting it out of the park in their 2021, ’22 and ’23 drafts and have a ton of good players on cheap rookie contracts. The Packers have been on a similar run in the draft and carried out a flawless transition from Aaron Rodgers to Love. The Vikings are spending next to nothing at quarterback and paired a brilliant offensive mind in O’Connell with arguably the NFL’s smartest defensive coordinator in Brian Flores.
It’s one thing to set your sights on taking the North, but a whole other to make the climb to the top. And while the other three teams are at or near the summit and figure to camp out there for years to come, the Bears have yet to find a foothold.