The Green Bay Packers invested significant money into signing veteran offensive guard Aaron Banks during the first wave of 2025 NFL free agency, and analysts are already calling them out for paying too much to secure their new starter.
According to Over the Cap, the Packers signed Banks to a four-year, $77 million deal that includes $27 million fully guaranteed in an uncharacteristically splashy addition. The new contract makes Banks one of just six NFL guards who is earning at least $19 million annually and ranks him higher than Packers Pro Bowl guard Elgton Jenkins.
That’s … a bit steep from Pro Football Focus’ vantage.
The sports analytics website projected Banks would sign for roughly $13 million less in free agency and graded out the Packers’ contract for him as “below average.” PFF also dubbed him one of the five most “overpaid” free agents from 2025’s free agency period.
“The good news with this deal is that Banks is coming off a career-high 65.4 PFF overall grade in 2024 and has developed throughout his NFL career,” PFF wrote on March 17. “However, a deal that makes him the sixth-highest-paid guard in football is very rich. The Packers are betting on his continued development.”
Packers Are Taking a Risk With Aaron Banks Signing
The skepticism about Banks’ signing is warranted, but the Packers are still a ways off from knowing whether their $77 million investment in him will work out for them.
On one hand, Banks has started 43 games at left guard over the past three seasons for the San Francisco 49ers, providing the Packers with veteran experience for the interior of their offensive line. According to ESPN Analytics, he finished with career-high win rates as both a run-blocker (69%) and a pass-blocker (91.7%) for the Niners in 2024.
Banks will also carry a cap hit of just $9.03 million for the Packers in 2025.
On the other hand, Banks has been a bit more inconsistent as a pass-blocker than his allowed sacks suggest, particularly when it comes to yielding pressure in big games. He has also not played all 17 games since becoming a full-time starter in 2022, playing less than 79% of offensive snaps in each of those three seasons (and just 71.83% in 2024).
After 2025, Banks’ cap chargers will also skyrocket. He is scheduled to cost $24.85 million against the cap in 2026, $22.25 million in 2027 and $20.75 million in 2027.
The Packers likely won’t mind paying so much to Banks if he lives up to his contract, but it does create a significant amount of boom-or-bust potential for him in 2025.
How Will Aaron Banks Impact Packers’ Draft Plans?
One more important thing to remember about the Packers signing Banks: We do not yet have the full context of how they are planning to assemble their offensive line in 2025 and — as a result — might view his signing more favorably after the NFL draft.
According to ESPN’s Rob Demovsky, the Packers could move Jenkins from left guard to center to replace free-agent departure Josh Myers for the 2025 season. If they do, it would allow Banks to slide to left guard and leave Sean Rhyan and 2024 first-round pick Jordan Morgan to compete for the right guard job, substantially improving depth.
The Packers could then focus their draft resources on fortifying other parts of the line, such as drafting another offensive tackle to play behind starters Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom — or, perhaps, taking a chance on a new center to develop into a bigger role.
If Green Bay walks out of the draft with another promising offensive lineman and gets a strong return on investment from Banks, the move could look brilliant in hindsight.
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