It’s going to be a little different this year.
When the 97th Academy Awards are broadcast live on ABC and Hulu, and beamed to more than 200 countries on Sunday, March 2 (starting an hour earlier than usual, at 6 p.m. Central Time), the show will go on as planned, with Oscars handed out in 23 categories.
Standing ovations will be accorded, glamorous stars will be flustered and flattered and say they’re SHOCKED by their victory, even though they were one of just five people on the planet who was destined to win that night. Conan O’Brien will tell jokes. Some will land. Some might not. For first-time Oscar recipients, their biographies will forever be changed to include “Academy Award winner” as the headline.
Still, we know the overall tone will have a more somber vibe, as the Los Angeles area continues to reel from the tragic fires that have claimed at least 85 lives and damaged or destroyed some 20,000 structures. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oscars take a page from the playbook at “Saturday Night Live,” whose first episode after 9/11 opened with Mayor Rudy Giuliani delivering a speech on a stage filled with firefighters and police officers and first responders, followed by Paul Simon’s beautiful and moving performance of “The Boxer.” Lorne Michaels then joined Giuliani onstage and said, “Can we be funny?” to which the mayor replied, “Why start now?”
These were very different events, obviously, but it would still be fitting if there was some kind of live tribute to the firefighters and other heroes, and maybe just the right singer singing just the right song. We’ll see.
As for the awards, it’s time for our annual predictions in all 23 categories — and it’s your opportunity to once again Beat the Critic (it ain’t hard), with one winner and their guests attending an advance screening of a major Hollywood release with yours truly, and the drinks and snacks are on me. (I had a great time this year hanging out with the winners prior to a screening of “A Complete Unknown.”)
Best picture
Predicted Winner: “The Brutalist”
As is the case every year, at least half of the 10 nominees for best picture have virtually no shot at winning the big prize, as the cliché about how it’s an honor just to be nominated is the reality. This year, it would be a monumental upset if “Wicked,” “The Substance,” “Nickel Boys” or “Dune: Part Two” emerged victorious. It’s a close race among the top contenders, but I think the bold and striking work of “The Brutalist” will edge out the polarizing “Emilia Pérez” and the entertaining and well-staged but ridiculously melodramatic “Conclave.” My personal favorite in this group is “I’m Still Here,” which is also nominated for best international feature and will face off against “Emilia Pérez” and three other fine films: “Flow,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” and “The Girl with the Needle.” There’s a small chance “I’m Still Here” could win in both categories, a la “Parasite,” but it’s more likely to be shut out. The good news is, the nomination for the film and for Fernanda Torres’ magnificent performance means more people will be curious to see it.
Best actress
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Hollywood loves a good comeback story, and even though Demi Moore never actually disappeared from the scene, we’re three decades past the era in which she was one of the highest-paid stars in the business thanks to touchstones such as “Ghost,” “A Few Good Men” and “Indecent Proposal,” Moore poured her heart and soul into a role in “The Substance” that served as a commentary on ageism and sexism in the movies — and IRL as they say. There’s a chance Mikey Madison gets the call for “Anora,” but Madison is just 25, and the Academy voters might feel she’ll have other chances, while this could be the last and best chance for Demi to get recognized.
Best actor
Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
I’m going with the mild upset here and picking Chalamet’s work in “A Complete Unknown” over two great and veteran actors, Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist” and Ralph Fiennes for “Conclave.” (It was great to see Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan get nominated, but they are long shots.) For one thing, Brody has won Oscar before, for “The Pianist.” Also, Chalamet is so darn likable and talented that it’s almost annoying, except for he’s so darn likable and talented. Finally, Hollywood LOVES biopics about entertainers, and the actors who play those entertainers. Just ask Barbra Streisand, Sissy Spacek, Cate Blanchett, Jamie Foxx, Rami Malek, Renée Zellweger, Reese Witherspoon and Marion Cotillard, among others.
Best supporting actress
Predicted Winner: Zoë Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
My favorite performance in this stellar group is Monica Barbaro, who channeled Joan Baez without making it a facile imitation in “A Complete Unknown,” but Barbaro is a long shot, as are Isabella Rossellini and Felicity Jones. There’s a chance the globally popular and greatly talented Ariana Grande wins for “Wicked,” which would also be a way of honoring the film, but I’m going with Zoë Saldaña, who has starred in some of the most successful franchises of all time, has been a reliable presence in a number of smaller movies as well — and gave the most resonant performance in a film that garnered a whopping 13 nominations.
Best supporting actor
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
As usual, this category is stacked, from Yura Borisov’s scene-stealing and magnetic work in “Anora” to Jeremy Strong’s typically great performance in “The Apprentice” to Guy Pearce playing one of the most detestable figures in any movie in 2024 in “The Brutalist.” I think it comes down to a two-man race between Kieran Culkin, who is riding a wave of career highs with “Succession” and now with a tailor-made role in Jesse Eisenberg’s two-hander, and Edward Norton, who provided a folksy moral conscience as Pete Seeger in “A Complete Unknown” (and did a fine job of capturing Seeger’s bluegrass banjo style as well). This is Norton’s fourth nomination and he’s never won, even though he’s widely considered one of the most versatile actors of his generation, so this could be his time — but Culkin has just too much momentum to be stopped at this point.