LAS VEGAS — On MLK Day afternoon, Jeff Davis, his wife and daughter, along with three other couples and their kids, saw the Golden Knights play the Blues at T-Mobile Arena.
Davis, the ace Circa Sports NHL oddsman, had an ulterior motive.
“The numbers told me to bet the Blues,” Davis said. “I’m sitting in a crowd of 18,000, and I’m rooting for the Blues. Another dad asked me, ‘Why are you rooting for the Blues?’ I said, ‘Because I bet the Blues.’
“I have so many Oilers divisional future wagers, I hope Vegas loses every game in regulation between now and June.”
It isn’t a matter of choosing between his head and his heart.
“I have no heart,” Davis said. “I’m dead inside, bro. Been doing this way too long. If you’re gonna bet, being a fan just gets in the way. I’m a robot.”
St. Louis led late 4-2 but yielded two goals. In overtime, the Blues had no shots on goal. Knights center Jack Eichel whiffed on an open net. St. Louis won 5-4 in a shootout.
“A heart-attack special,” Davis said. “Pretty gross, an awful sweat. I think I got plus-180 [risk $100 to win $180]. A big number, and a good one.”
BUILT FOR POSTSEASON
Many would covet Davis’ power ratings, which he updates daily. They produce his NHL lines.
He bets elsewhere and has had puck profit the last five seasons. Until the break, he had made 718 hockey wagers this season. Again, he’s in the black.
I check in with him before a season and during the midseason break, which allows for All-Star festivities, Olympics or other competitions, like the just-completed 4 Nations Face-Off.
(A Massachusetts native, Davis, 47, flew home last week and took his father, brother and a nephew to the 4 Nations title game Thursday night in Boston.)
He had projected Toronto as a preseason Stanley Cup favorite. I nabbed a Maple Leafs title ticket, at 10-to-1 odds, on Dec. 31. On Tuesday, I fetched another one, at 12-1, at Circa.
“Sneaky-good,” Davis called the Leafs. “Their underlying numbers haven’t been very good, but they’ve been getting good goaltending.”
Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz leads the NHL with a .929 save percentage.
Behind new coach Craig Berube, who guided St. Louis to the 2019 title, the Maple Leafs (68 points) trailed the Panthers by three points at the break.
“[Auston] Matthews is playing the best two-way hockey of his life, and Toronto has a handful of high-end forwards,” Davis said. “Plus, they’re physical.
‘‘Berube has added defensive grit to the team. They have a lot of pieces that seem to be what makes Stanley Cup winners. I could go on forever. Toronto is really built to win in the playoffs.”
OILERS Vs. LEAFS?
In the West, Davis endorses Edmonton, a Game 7 loser to Florida in last season’s Stanley Cup Final. Davis had posted +700 preseason odds on Edmonton to win it all. On Tuesday, it was +525.
BetMGM has 40-1 odds on Edmonton over Toronto and the Leafs over the Oilers on its Stanley Cup Final exacta menu. An all-Canadian title series last occurred in 1989, when the Flames beat the Canadiens.
“The Oilers are so good,” Davis said. “They’re gonna be favored against everyone, which gives them a great shot. From a math perspective, I think they’re one of the two most logical teams.
“You will be hard-pressed to beat that team in a seven-game series. I would be surprised if they’re not playing for the Stanley Cup in June.”
REALITY CHECK
The Capitals had a strong start, stayed hot without sniper Alex Ovechkin for a month and sit atop the Eastern Conference. Goalie Logan Thompson parlayed early success into a six-year, $35 million deal.
“They’ve gotten by, a little bit, with smoke and mirrors,” Davis said, “and Thompson basically turning into prime Dominik Hasek over the last few months.”
Davis marveled over a recent Flyers-Caps game. At no point, he said, was Washington the better team. “Yet they scored more goals and got two points.”
In his power ratings, Davis rates Washington 12th, behind the Hurricanes, Oilers, Panthers, Stars, Lightning, Golden Knights, Maple Leafs, Jets, Devils, Avalanche and Rangers.
On neutral ice in one game, Davis would make the Caps underdogs against all of those squads. Betting against Washington in those venues might offer an avenue to profit the rest of the way.
“I don’t know how games won in November and December translate into winning a playoff series,” he said. “Their underlying numbers are OK, not great.
“When it comes time for the playoffs, if they beat whomever they beat in the first round and end up having to play Carolina or New Jersey, I think reality might get them.”
FLYIN’ WINGS
Detroit had won six in a row, moving into the eighth and final East playoff slot. At Circa on Feb. 3, I got 64-1 conference odds on the Red Wings and 150-1 for the Stanley Cup.
Just get into the postseason, I thought, where anything might happen.
With 61 points, the Wings trailed seventh-place Ottawa by a point; they’re a point ahead of Boston and Columbus, three in front of the Rangers.
Davis doesn’t share my enthusiasm for Detroit, owing its success to random variance.
“They’re not very likely to make the playoffs,” he said. “If two of Ottawa, Detroit, the Rangers, Boston and Columbus will make the playoffs, I would be surprised if the Rangers aren’t one of those teams.
“And I think Ottawa is quite good, especially now that [goalie Linus] Ullmark is back.”
DEAD PREDS
Davis points to Nashville, which made an offseason splash by acquiring forwards Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos, as the surprise of the NHL. The Predators (19-35, 45 points) went into the break with an NHL-worst 20 units of loss. Worse, hockey punters Davis most respects were getting wiped out.
Nashville began the season with a five-game losing streak, then it dropped eight of 10. Then it lost eight in a row, followed by six consecutive defeats just before the break.
“There was a lot of hullabaloo with those signings,” Davis said. “They lost [frequently], and each and every game they got bet harder and harder at the window. Their games sometimes changed three levels.”
Sharps moved those betting lines from -140 to -150, to -160 and even -175 in a single game. The Preds would lose, but the cycle repeated.
“Just insane,” Davis said. “What’s crazy is, their underlying numbers were quite good. They were just wildly unlucky in a lot of games.’’
HOT SPOT
The Blackhawks went into the break with 41 points, four ahead of league bottom-feeder San Jose. But the Hawks, at home, had made 1.11 units despite an 11-17 United Center record. The underdog nature of those triumphs, some by +200, explains that profit.
On Feb. 7, it was +170ish at home against Nashville. The Ioriatti boys — three brothers and their nephew, all Chicago-born — visited for the Super Bowl and shunned the Hawks.
I explained that Nashville had lost its last five games and was running worse, and the Hawks’ odds were choice. Two made the bet. The Hawks won 6-2.
Pick spots wisely.