Mike Babcock should reduce the minutes of his top players at five-on-five, according to Edmonton Oilers insider Jason Gregor.
Gregor, who hosts a show on Sports 1440 in Canada and for Daily Faceoff, wrote this week that Babcock should avoid the urge to reduce the minutes of his top players on the power play.
Babcock, hired amid some controversy in Edmonton this offseason, is preaching the need to improve organizational depth. The hard-nosed coach has suggested that depth could be the driving force behind Edmonton’s ultimate goal of winning the Stanley Cup. Star players in Edmonton pushed for the Babcock hiring, which adds a curious twist to the depth conversation.
The numbers say Mike Babcock should leave the power play alone.
Gregor broke down the numbers in an article for Oilers Nation. His conclusion: the Oilers have the best power play in league history. Thus, leave it alone.
It’s hard to argue with his conclusion. While Gregor lays out the efficiency numbers in his piece, additional numbers show how dominant Edmonton has been with the man advantage. Over the past three seasons, Edmonton is the only team in the NHL to score more than 10 goals per 60 minutes on the power play, according to Natural Stat Trick. That’s more than a goal better per 60 minutes than the second-best team in this category, Tampa Bay.
Can the new Oilers coach improve the team at five-on-five?
The Oilers need to get better at five-on-five, particularly when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are not on the ice. Edmonton was minus-14 at five-on-five last season. On the surface, that number is fairly pedestrian. Underneath the surface, that number looks generous.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl played 317 minutes together last season at five-on-five. The Oilers were plus-two in those minutes. McDavid played 1,071 minutes without Draisaitl. The Oilers were plus-five in those minutes. Draisaitl played 723 minutes without McDavid last season. The Oilers were plus-10 in those minutes. Then the team played 1981 minutes without either player on the ice, and the Oilers were minus-31 in those minutes, all according to Natural Stat Trick.
The Oilers are certainly hoping that some of this will be solved with changes on their blue line. Darnell Nurse, traded to San Jose earlier this month, was minus-20 and underwater on advanced metrics in 1166 minutes away from McDavid, according to Natural Stat Trick.
How does the goaltending factor in?
It won’t go down as a banner year in net for the Oilers. Connor Ingram wound up taking the net for a while. The Oilers struggled with Stuart Skinner in the net. They struggled after trading Skinner with Tristan Jarry in the net. They struggled with Calvin Pickard in the net. Ingram saved 1.7 goals above expected (GSAx) in 32 games, according to MoneyPuck. That was their best goaltender — decidedly average. Ingram’s GSAx numbers were 37th out of 98 NHL goalies last season. That ranking drops to 42 when normalizing per 60 minutes played.
The goaltending wasn’t great, but the players in front of them weren’t great either. Edmonton brought in two new goalies to compete with Jarry, including Stanley Cup winner Frederik Andersen and former top goalie prospect Devon Levi.
Mike Babcock will be judged on how it ends.
The controversial head coach will ultimately be remembered by Oilers fans for how the story ends. The Oilers are trying to rewrite the ending after twice coming up short in the Stanley Cup Finals.
What Babcock does with the power play minutes distribution, the five-on-five minutes distribution and in net will just be chapters in the larger story. The better question now is whether Edmonton and general manager Stan Bowman did enough with the roster to bolster Babcock’s goal to improve behind McDavid and Draisaitl.
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