The Denver Broncos shocked the NFL in 2024 by exceeding their projected total of 6.5 wins, finishing 10-7 and making the postseason for the first time since winning the Super Bowl following the 2015 season.
With almost every one of their key players back plus a few high-profile additions, the Broncos have their sights set on continuing that ascent in 2025. The people who set the odds on the NFL have other ideas.
The first projected over/under win totals for the 2025 NFL regular season were released on March 27, with FanDuel projecting the Broncos at 8.5 wins and ESPN Bet projecting them at 9.5 wins.
From ESPN: “Denver had gone under its win total for four straight seasons before a 10-7 campaign last year on a 5.5-win projection … The Broncos were 12-5 against the spread last season and 8-0 straight up as a favorite.”
Star Rookie QB, Defense Sparked Turnaround in 2024
There were 2 major plotlines that developed in 2024 that sent the Broncos back into the postseason for the first time in a decade — even if they were blown out by the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card Round.
The first of those was a stellar defense that not only led the NFL with 63.0 sacks but featured 3 NFL All-Pro picks in defensive end Zach Allen, edge rusher Nik Bonitto and cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who became Denver’s first winner of NFL Defensive Player of the Year since linebacker Randy Gradishar in 1978.
The second plotline — and the one perhaps no one saw coming — was the development of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Out of the 6 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, Nix was the last of those at No. 12 and seemed to have the lowest expectations of the bunch.
Nix bucked those expectations. First by becoming the first rookie to start a season opener for the Broncos since Pro Football Hall of Famer and 2-time Super Bowl champion John Elway in 1983, then by becoming an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist.
Denver’s Deft Offseason Moves Fortified Defense
The Broncos have been one of the under-the-radar winners of the NFL offseason so far by addressing their 2 biggest question marks on defense. Denver signed free agent safety and former NFL All-Pro Talanoa Hufanga to a 3-year, $39 million contract and free agent linebacker Dre Greenlaw to a 3-year, $31.5 million contract.
Both Hufanga and Greenlaw were in line for much bigger paydays at different points in the last few seasons but injuries hit at the wrong time — injuries both are on track to be fully recovered from in 2025.
The final missing piece for the Broncos if they want to exceed the oddsmaker’s projections is finding a centerpiece running back. The Broncos haven’t had a player rush for over 1,000 yards in a single season since Phillip Lindsay in 2019 and haven’t had a running back named to the Pro Bowl since C.J. Anderson and haven’t had an NFL All-Pro running back since Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Davis in 1998.
The Broncos could very well take a running back in the first round, with North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton looking like he could be available when they pick at No. 20 overall.
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