Two major midseason landmarks on the NBA calendar are in the past, meaning it’s finally time to turn the collective attention toward the 2025 playoffs after a lawless trade deadline and pitiful All-Star weekend.
The Nuggets went into the break on a surge, reinforcing their status as championship contenders. But where do they rank in the crowd of top teams?
For now, one can only speculate. So that’s exactly what we’ve done here, building a top-10 power ranking based on championship potential.
Be warned: This list is not beholden to the current league standings. They’re informative, of course, but not definitive in a forward-looking context. Last season, the Mavericks were floating between seventh and eighth place in the Western Conference for most of February and March. They ended up making an NBA Finals run.
In that vein, what we have here is a purely predictive exercise (one that will surely be received agreeably by everyone). The persistence of parity stands out. Six different teams have won the last six NBA titles, and four more potential new champions occupy the following top seven. Two 2024 conference finalists didn’t even make the list.
For the sake of consistency, teams’ records and statistics are as of the All-Star break. Games resumed on Wednesday.
10. Houston Rockets (34-21)
Probably not a serious contender yet, but this 10th spot amounts to an honorable mention anyway. The Rockets at least deserve a shoutout for overachieving so far, even amid a recent slump. They don’t have The Guy yet, but their defense makes them a scary playoff matchup.
9. Dallas Mavericks* (30-26)
The asterisk is doing a lot of legwork here. If this roster is fully healthy, it can hang with almost anyone. But making the Play-In Tournament isn’t even a guarantee yet. Nico Harrison wanted to trade for a 32-year-old with considerable injury baggage because he was afraid of 25-year-old Luka Doncic’s future, speculative injury baggage. There is no update at this time on Anthony Davis’ return timeline.
8. Milwaukee Bucks (29-24)
No need to overthink this one. Milwaukee doesn’t look good enough to win it all, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the premier ceiling-raisers in the NBA.
7. Memphis Grizzlies (36-18)
The Grizzlies rank fourth in net rating, and they’re about to complete their third 50-win season in the last four — the lone exception being last year, when Ja Morant played nine games — yet they remain widely slept on outside Beale Street. The clock’s ticking to prove they’re capable of a deep playoff run with Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. as their epicenter.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (32-20)
Despite Rob Pelinka’s best efforts, this remains an incomplete roster. That doesn’t mean LeBron James and a spite-driven Doncic can’t take it far. As for defending Nikola Jokic? Or anyone else, for that matter? That’s, uh, a bridge the Lakers can cross when they get there.
5. New York Knicks (36-18)
The most-played five-man unit in the NBA (by a margin of 278 minutes!) is an established entity by now. Minutes: 806. Offensive rating: 118.5. As of the All-Star break, no other lineup with even 275 minutes together was scoring more efficiently. But do Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns form a nucleus powerful enough to exorcise ghosts of postseason past at MSG? Their path to the Finals is more difficult on paper than that of the next team.
4. Denver Nuggets (36-19)
Championship experience, continuity and top-of-roster talent matter. But the Nuggets still have much to prove. They’re flawed defensively. Depth will be tested in the playoffs. Most concerningly, they are 1-6 against the other top-five teams on this list.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (44-10)
The only potential hole in their starting lineup was at small forward. They filled it at the trade deadline with a 19-point-per-game scorer who’s 40% from 3-point range this season. It remains to be seen exactly how well De’Andre Hunter meshes, but it’s clear that anything is possible for Cleveland with home-court advantage in the East.
2. Boston Celtics (39-16)
The defending champs were the only team in the league ranking in the top five in offense and defense at the All-Star break. And that’s with Kristaps Porzingis having missed 26 games.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (44-10)
A juggernaut roster that checks all the boxes and looks ready to take the final step in its meteoric three-year rise this summer, especially if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to forge a place in OKC lore reminiscent of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
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