With just under a month remaining in the NBA regular season, there’s still zero clarity as to which team the Nuggets will face in the first round of the playoffs. According to Basketball Reference, they had at least a 15% chance to finish in four different spots in the Western Conference standings as of Thursday.
It can at least be reasonably assumed that Denver will match up against one of six teams. We’ve ranked them here, starting with the Nuggets’ most ideal opponent and ending with who they should want to play least.
1. Los Angeles Clippers
Most likely seeding matchup: 2 vs. 7
Head-to-head: 2-2
Offense, defense, net: 112.8 (18th), 109.5 (2nd), 3.3 (9th)
The lowdown: No opponent in the Western Conference will be a cakewalk, but the Clippers may not be as equipped to expose Denver’s defensive deficiencies and league-low 3-point volume. They average more than 15 turnovers and attempt the second-fewest 3s in the West. This matchup would also indicate that Denver finished the regular season strong.
Norman Powell is the most improved scorer in the NBA. Ivica Zubac has been one of the 10 best centers in the league this season. In a four-man lineup with stars Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, they have a lethal 14.4 net rating. Health is Leonard’s enemy, though, and the postseason is Harden’s.
2. Houston Rockets
Most likely seeding matchup: 4 vs. 5
Head-to-head: 0-1
Offense, defense, net: 114.3 (13th), 109.6 (4th), 4.7 (5th)
The lowdown: There are valid reasons to be wary. Entering Sunday’s game, the Nuggets have lost five of their last six to Houston. Amen Thompson is a nuclear-grade defender with the capability to take Jamal Murray out of rhythm for games at a time. The Rockets have been a stellar regular-season team, racing ahead of their rebuild schedule and positioning themselves for a splashy offseason.
But in the meantime, they’re still rightly scrutinized for their lack of a go-to star scorer. Those tend to be useful in the playoffs. Even at the end of the floor where they’re elite, the Rockets excel by limiting opponents’ 3-point attempts (second-fewest allowed per 100 possessions). So be it. Denver lives in the paint anyway.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
Seeding matchup: 4 vs. 5
Head-to-head: 1-1
Offense, defense, net: 117.4 (6th), 112.1 (11th), 5.3 (4th)
The lowdown: A first-round series against Houston or Memphis could mean the Nuggets stumbled across the finish line a bit — not to mention that if they end up in the 4-v-5 slot, they’ll be on OKC’s side of the bracket. Keep that in mind before wishing for either of these opponents.
The Grizzlies play faster than any team in the league. Jaren Jackson Jr. might be on the verge of winning his second Defensive Player of the Year award. When he and rookie Zach Edey share the floor, they have an 11.3 net. Nikola Jokic hasn’t played Memphis yet — he was away from the team for the birth of his son in November — adding an element of mystery. Denver’s penultimate game of the regular season could be informative. Double-big lineups have been effective against the three-time MVP before.
4. Golden State Warriors
Seeding matchup: 3 vs. 6 or 2 vs. 7
Head-to-head: 2-0
Offense, defense, net: 113.6 (17th), 111.0 (7th), 2.6 (10th)
The lowdown: OK, those numbers are misleading. The next two teams belong in a tier together denoting seasons dramatically reinvigorated by the trade deadline. Since Jimmy Butler’s debut, Golden State is 15-3 with the NBA’s third-best net rating (11.3). But one of those losses was to Denver … without Jokic and Murray.
Jokic tends to command the floor against the undersized Warriors. He’s averaging 30.4 points (58.3% shooting), 12.6 rebounds, 10.1 assists and 2.1 steals in the last three seasons during a nine-game head-to-head win streak. On the defensive end, you’d think the Nuggets would find themselves lamenting the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was one of the best in the league at chasing Steph Curry around off-ball screens. But Curry has struggled just the same against Denver this year.
5. Los Angeles Lakers
Seeding matchup: 4 vs. 5 or 3 vs. 6
Head-to-head: 2-2
Offense, defense, net: 114.6 (11th), 112.7 (12th), 1.8 (12th)
The lowdown: Swapping Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic not only represented a paradigm shift in the league for years to come; it instantly reoriented the matchup dynamics between the Lakers and Nuggets after consecutive postseasons of Denver dominance.
Aaron Gordon (health permitting) has the physical profile to guard either Doncic or LeBron James. Then what? Christian Braun will undoubtedly be up for the challenge of defending the other, but he’ll be navigating a size disadvantage nonetheless. That leaves Jamal Murray to defend Austin Reaves when both starting lineups are on the floor. The Nuggets have struggled to slow down opponents with even one great shot-creator on the perimeter. Los Angeles can throw three at them.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Seeding matchup: 3 vs. 6 or 2 vs. 7
Head-to-head: 0-3
Offense, defense, net: 114.7 (10th), 110.8 (6th), 3.9 (8th)
The lowdown: Could it be anyone else? Aside from the recent results, the Nuggets are just plain sick and tired of Minnesota. They’ve met 24 times since the start of the 2022-23 season, including two playoff rounds and a preseason exhibition. Somehow, there’s still another regular-season game slated for April 1. No team knows Denver’s tendencies like this one.
The Timberwolves are the only team on this list ranking top 10 in both offense and defense. Anthony Edwards has remodeled himself into arguably the best volume 3-point shooter in the game. Julius Randle has slowly gained traction as a playmaker alongside new teammates. The Wolves aren’t just an annoying matchup; they’re playing their best ball of the season at the right time.
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