As the New York Yankees head into their defense of the 2024 American League championship, and set their sights on second straight trip to the World Series, the difficult reality is that they are not as good as they were last season. Of course, there are still 162 games to play and there is no way to know what will transpire over the course of a long MLB season. But for what it’s worth, the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection system, as of March 18, sees the Yankees winning just 85 games â a nine-win drop from 2024 â and placing second in the American League East.
The Yankees’ chances of making the playoffs at all, according to PECOTA, are basically a coin flip, at 51.5 percent.
How did the 27-time World Series-winning franchise arrive at this point? First, they lost Juan Soto â the fourth most valuable player in baseball last year, measured by WAR (8.1) â to the New York Mets in a historically rich free agent deal. They also lost seven-year second baseman Gleyber Torres to the Detroit Tigers in free agency, and never signed another infielder to replace him.
Yankees Spring Has Been a Health Nightmare
But even more than the setbacks they took in free agency, the Yankees have endured a nightmarish spring that has seen their roster ravaged by injuries. The ace of their starting rotation, 2023 Cy Young Award winner Garrett Cole is done for the season with Tommy John surgery. Postseason home run hero Giancarlo Stanton may be out for the season and will certainly miss a large part of it with pain in both elbows.
Last year’s Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is out with a lat strain. Top pitching prospect Chase Hampton saw his season come to a sudden end, also due to Tommy John surgery. Fifth starter Clarke Schmidt has complained of a bad back, and was scratched from a Tuesday start with a sore shoulder.
And now, pieces are being chipped away from the Yankees bullpen by health concerns. The Bronx Bombers thought they had their relief corps set with six pitchers: newly acquired closer Devin Williams, setup man Luke Weaver, and then the middle relief quartet of Tim Hill, Fernando Cruz, Ian Hamilton and Mark Leiter Jr.
But two of those six pieces now appear to be uncertain. Five-year veteran Hamilton, who gave the Yankees 37 2/3 innings last year with a 3.82 ERA, has yet to throw a pitch in a spring training game and only started throwing live batting practice last week. His progress has been delayed due to what has been described as an “infection” that he contracted early in Spring Training.
Leiter Jr. Latest in Parade of Bullpen Maladies
Leiter Jr., who struck out 33 in 21 2/3 innings for New York last year, also now sees his Opening Day status in doubt after avoiding arbitration with a one-year, $2.05 million contract. Leiter, the nephew of former Major League pitcher Al Leiter (who finished his 19-year career with the Yankees in 2005), has not seen any Grapefruit League action either due to a persistent back injury.
On Sunday, the Yankees coaching staff scheduled the 34-year-old for a bullpen session, but Leiter could not take the mound, “raising concerns that the issue might be more significant than initially thought,” according to Empire Sports Media founder Alexander Wilson.
Other Yankees bullpen pitchers currently dealing with injuries include Scott Effross (hamstring), Jake Cousins (forearm), Tyler Matzek (oblique), and Jonathan Loáisiga, whose 2024 season was cut short in April due to elbow surgery.
Once a mainstay of the Yankees middle-relief unit, Loáisiga saw his best year in 2021 when he handled 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA recording nine wins against just four losses in pinstripes.
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