The National Hurricane Center is tracking three developing systems with growing chances to form into the season’s next tropical depression or storm while also following Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce in the Atlantic.
The most likely to threaten the U.S. is a system the NHC expects to form in the Caribbean that could head into the Gulf of Mexico.
As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, forecasters predict an area of low pressure to form over the Western Caribbean in a few days.
“Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest,” forecasters said. “This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.”
The NHC gives it a 50% chance of development in the next seven days.
The warm Gulf waters were how Hurricane Helene picked up steam under similar circumstances, starting as a “potential tropical cyclone,” but then growing into a Category 4 major hurricane that devastated Florida’s Gulf Coast before striking the state’s Big Bend region and moving quickly up into the Southeast U.S.
The hurricane is blamed for at least 64 deaths across five states, including 11 in Florida.
Another system with high chances to develop this week is a broad and elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Atlantic located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
“Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.
A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.
Also in the Atlantic, but no threat to land, are Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce.
Hurricane Isaac cone of uncertainty as of 8 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. (NHC)
As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. advisory, Isaac was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds moving northeast at 13 mph located about 590 miles northwest of the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend out 45 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 205 miles.
“A turn toward the north-northeast by the middle part of this week is forecast in response to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the cyclone from the west-northwest. Around the 72-hour period, Isaac should turn northward while moving around the eastern periphery of a larger baroclinic low-pressure system,” forecasters said.
As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. advisory, Tropical Storm Joyce had sustained winds of 45 mph as it moved northwest at 9 mph located about 1,1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 105 miles.
Tropical Storm Joyce cone of uncertainty as of 8 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. (NHC)
Forecasters said Joyce is most likely to weaken within the next couple of days.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 10 named storms so far including two hurricanes, of which two became major hurricanes.
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