NFL Picks: Two big-time AFC matchups among playoff contenders set Week 11 stage

Around the AFC

No country for old men. The Aaron Rodgers era for the Jets has not gone to plan. Now healthy, Rodgers and the Jets have stumbled to a 3-7 mark. After a spirited win against Houston on Halloween, New York got blasted Sunday by Arizona. They’re virtually out of the playoff race already unless they win their final seven. Ouch. Can the near-41-year-old QB pull off a miracle starting against Indianapolis?

Crunch time already. The margin for error isn’t quite as slim in Cincinnati, but the Bengals have to get hot and do it fast. They’ve got star power — Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Trey Hendrickson, etc. — but haven’t got enough production from others. It won’t be easy Sunday at the Chargers or the week following against Pittsburgh. Get those two, though, and anything can happen.

Bottom feeders. There are five teams tied for the fewest wins in the NFL at two, and four of them are in the AFC. They represent a big chunk of the race for the No. 1 overall pick. Not surprisingly, the AFC quartet — Tennessee, Las Vegas, Cleveland and Jacksonville — are all underdogs this week.

Around the NFC

Big Fan(gio). The Eagles built a two-game lead in the NFC East with a 26-18 win over Washington on Thursday night. Saquon Barkley (146 yards, two TDs) will rightfully get headlines, but Vic Fangio’s defense has been good all year. He’s got the Eagles tied for fifth in the NFL at 17.9 points allowed per game. Another former Broncos assistant, Philly secondary coach Christian Parker, has one of the best young groups in football led by rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

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Sorry, Caleb. What a difference a month makes. In early October, No. 1 pick Caleb Williams was thriving in Chicago and the Bears were 4-2. Now, OC Shane Waldron has been fired, the offense looks to be in disarray, and an enviable group of skill guys hasn’t lived up to its billing. Nor has Williams, who is holding the ball and getting hit far too much in recent weeks. Just a blip? Or a continuation of three decades of QB futility in the Windy City?

Dak’s out. What a disastrous season in Dallas. Now comes word that QB Dak Prescott is indeed out for the season due to a recent hamstring injury. Without him, the Cowboys got blasted, 34-6, by Philly. Now they’re 7.5-point home underdogs against Houston on Monday night. It’s getting bleak in a hurry for Mike McCarthy and his 3-6 team.

Game of the Week

Kansas City at Buffalo

Any time Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are on the same field, it’s must-see television. This time, the Chiefs are 9-0 and the Bills are 8-2 and hold the top two seeds in the AFC. If Buffalo wants a real shot at the No. 1 seed, this is its best chance. If the Chiefs get to 10-0, they’ll only tighten their grip on home-field advantage. Either way, would it be a surprise to see a late January reprisal, perhaps at Arrowhead Stadium? In Round 1, the Bills are 2-point home favorites. Kansas City, though, is 7-0 in one-score games over the course of its perfect start. Should be a great one.

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Bills 24, Chiefs 23

Lock of the Week

Jacksonville at Detroit

It would be difficult to overstate the nature of this mismatch. Detroit can do no wrong. Even with Jared Goff throwing five picks last week against a good Houston team, the Lions came back and won. They’re explosive offensively and defensively and have a real case as the best team in football. The Jags, meanwhile, are spiraling at 2-8 and will again be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The result? Detroit is a two-touchdown home favorite. You don’t see that kind of line in the NFL often.

Lions 35, Jaguars 17

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Upset of the week

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

This easily could have been the game of the week, too. The Ravens (7-3) visit the Steelers (7-2) in the first of two matchups between the AFC North foes that will likely decide the division championship. Pittsburgh’s won four straight — the past three with Russell Wilson at quarterback — and Baltimore’s won two in a row since that debacle in Cleveland. The Ravens are 3-point favorites and superior offensively by a good margin, but the Steelers are solid across the board and can challenge Baltimore’s maligned passing defense.

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Steelers 28, Ravens 27

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