NFL Picks: How long will teams keep handing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs victories?

Around the AFC

Hit hard: There is no defense for how Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair laid out sliding Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence last week. It’s why he was immediately ejected. And it’s why, on top of previous transgressions that included punching a helmeted Cincinnati player, he was suspended three games. After the suspension, Al-Shaair took to social media to declare in all-caps, “If you want me to be your villain, I’ll be your villain!” along with a middle finger emoji and pictures of the Joker and his My Cause, My Cleats support of Palestine. The obvious implication is that his suspension had more to do with his off-the-field views than his on-the-field hits. Our viewpoint: If Al-Shaair doesn’t want to get suspended, he should stop delivering Chuck Cecil-style hits in NFL games. Problem solved.

Play to win: On the opposite end of the suspension spectrum is Ravens receiver Diontae Johnson, who was suspended by his own team for … refusing to go into Baltimore’s game against Philadelphia!? Not to state the obvious here, but maybe that’s sort of what Johnson wants given that he … refused to go into Baltimore’s game against Philadelphia!? At the heart of the dispute appears to be a lack of playing time for Johnson, who’s been on the field for just 39 snaps since the Ravens acquired him from Carolina for a sixth-round pick, according to ESPN. So, to sum things up: A player peeved about a lack of playing time actively turned down playing time, leading to the team denying him playing time. What fun.

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Hoodie goes Heel?: This technically isn’t AFC or even NFL news, but we couldn’t resist commenting on a report that former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has spoken with North Carolina about its head football coach opening. This means the Tar Heels are considering replacing 73-year-old Mack Brown with a 72-year-old NFL lifer with about as much charisma as a bag of unsalted potato chips. We’re on to Wake Forest!

Around the NFC

Campbell’s coup: Why do we love Dan Campbell? The fiery postgame speeches? Of course. The promises of knee cap biting? No doubt. But more than anything, it’s calls like the one he made Thursday against the Packers when the Lions head coach opted to go for it on fourth-and-inches while already in field goal range with less than a minute left in a tie game. Detroit converted with a run up the gut, then won the game on a last-second field goal. Nine times of 10, NFL head coaches take the points and hope their defense shuts the door. Broncos head coach Sean Payton faced a similar decision last week and opted to kick a field goal. But Campbell loves to roll the dice, sometimes to his detriment (see: 2024 NFC Championship). And that’s the kind of good, ol’ plain fun we’re here for.

Fare thee well, C-Mac: Sometimes, it just isn’t your year. San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey said as much in an Instagram post after suffering a season-ending injury in the Buffalo snow last Sunday night. An MVP candidate a year ago, the Valor Christian product will appear in just four games in the 2024 season due to a series of injuries — an unkind cut coming in the NFL’s Year of the Running Back. Throughout a sterling NFL career that’s included two All-Pro selections and last year’s AP Offensive Player of the Year award, the only thing that’s slowed McCaffrey down has been his health. Here’s hoping that takes a turn for the better in 2025.

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ROY race: The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race has turned into a two-man tussle between Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and Commanders signal caller Jayden Daniels. After wobbling a bit over three straight losses, Daniels regained his footing last Sunday with 206 yards, three TDs and one interception in a win over Tennessee. With both of their teams sitting at 8-5 entering their bye week, Nix has a slight edge in passing yards (2,842-2,819) and passing TDs (17-15), while Daniels has a better QB rating (99.4-87.9) and more rushing yards (590-304). Translation: This could be a photo finish.

Game of the Week

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City

How long can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs keep dodging bullets? A week ago, it was the Raiders’ turn to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, with Las Vegas botching a snap well within range of a game-winning field goal attempt in the closing moments of their Black Friday showdown at Arrowhead. Now it’s the Chargers’ turn to find a way to squander a sure-fire win. And if there’s any franchise that knows how to do that, it’s the Bolts.

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Chiefs 20, Chargers 18

Lock of the Week

Carolina at Philadelphia

You know who suddenly looks frisky? The Carolina Panthers and former NFL draft bust Bryce Young. The 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick has thrown for 561 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions in a pair of narrow home losses to Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Now the Panthers head to the City of Brotherly Love as 13.5-point underdogs to the red-hot Eagles. Do we want a piece of that action? No, we want all of it.

Eagles 28, Panthers 24

Upset of the Week

Atlanta at Minnesota

A week after throwing four interceptions in an all-time dud against the Chargers, QB Kirk Cousins returns to his old Minnesota stomping grounds as a 5.5-point road ‘dog. It’s been a month since Cousins last threw a touchdown pass — a three-game span that’s also seen Atlanta lose three straight and relinquish a commanding lead in the lowly NFC South. Can the 36-year-old gunslinger rediscover his mojo against a salty Vikings defense? We say yes. We like that.

Falcons 24, Vikings 20

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