NFL picks: AFC race for the No. 1 seed is officially on and the Harbaugh Bowl should provide good MNF theater

Around the AFC

Race is on. The Steelers bungled a prime chance to stay near the top of the conference standings when they lost 24-19 to Cleveland in the snow Thursday night and fell to 8-3. They’ve got a tough schedule with Kansas City, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Cincinnati twice still to go. The real race for the No. 1 seed now looks like it’s between Buffalo (8-2) and Kansas City (9-1) after the Bills knocked off the Chiefs last week and grabbed a key tiebreaker in the process.

Hunting season. Find a more impactful free-agent addition this year than Danielle Hunter in Houston. The edge rusher signed from Minnesota and is putting up ridiculous numbers. He’s got 72 pressures — after a whopping 10 against the Cowboys — and a 21.8% pressure rate for the season. He forms a terrific duo with Will Anderson for the 7-4 Texans, who host the 2-8 Titans on Sunday.

Can Dolphins make run? Miami’s won two straight games to get to 4-6 and their schedule sets up for a potential run toward the back of the playoff field. They’ve got tough games left — at Green Bay on Thursday night, at Houston and San Francisco at home — but their other three games are against Drake Maye and the Patriots and then three against Cleveland and the Jets (twice).

Around the NFC

McCarthy-ism. It’s probably just a matter of time in Dallas, but Sunday brought another low. The Cowboys got rolled by the Texans, sheet metal fell from the Jerry World roof and nobody looked particularly interested. There aren’t more stunning stats than Dallas going two years without losing a regular-season home game and then being 0-5 this year and getting outscored 187-69. If they can’t beat Tommy DeVito and the Giants this weekend… well…

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Playing catch-up. The Rams have won four of five but that’s only got them back to .500. They enter Week 12 1.5 games behind Washington for the No. 7 playoff spot but have a chance to make a big move against Philadelphia. They’ll hang in the playoff race because of the wide-open NFC West, but Matthew Stafford and company are going to have to stack more wins at some point to get into the dance.

In the Cards? Speaking of the wide-open West, the division’s top spot is currently occupied by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. They’ve won four straight and now come off their bye week with a home game against Seattle to try to further bolster their division title pursuit. It’s the first of four NFC West games for Arizona in its final seven, so they’ll have every chance to do what they need to do in head-to-head matchups.

Game of the Week

Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers

The Harbaugh Bowl returns and this is a good one on Monday night. Like, major impacts on the race for seeding in the AFC postseason field. Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers (7-3) fended off Cincinnati last week and John Harbaugh’s Ravens (7-4) lost a tough one to Pittsburgh. Both have major work to do to win their respective positions, but neither is going to be an easy out come January. They should both have Super Bowl aspirations, especially considering the level at which quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson are currently playing. The Ravens are 3-point favorites going all the way across the country to SoFi Stadium.

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Ravens 28, Chargers 27

Lock of the Week

Detroit at Indianapolis

The Lions continue to look like the best team in football and are averaging 37 points over their eight-game winning streak. Overall they’re first in scoring offense and fifth in scoring defense. They’ve got weapons, they’ve got momentum and they’ve got a terrific coach in Dan Campbell. Oh, and they’ve got a pair of running backs who have already combined for 1,852 scrimmage yards and 19 total touchdowns. They’re a touchdown road favorite against Indianapolis on Sunday. Good luck, Colts.

Lions 35, Colts 20

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Upset of the Week

San Francisco at Green Bay

The 49ers have struggled to garner any real momentum so far this season. The Packers head into Week 12 at 7-3 but haven’t had a stretch where they look like they’re playing their best football. Somehow, some way these games between Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur tend to end up being close. San Francisco’s knocked Green Bay out of the playoffs two of the past three seasons and each of the past three matchups overall have been decided by a field goal or less. Anything else on a chilly Sunday in Green Bay would come as something of a surprise, given the Packers’ status as narrow, 2-point favorites.

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49ers 24, Packers 23

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