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NFL Best Team Win Total Bets

With the NFL season still a few months away, anticipation is building for the upcoming football action. Here are some early predictions for NFL win total bets.

NFL Team Win Total Bets

Carolina Panthers to Win Over 4.5 Games (-120, DraftKings)

Despite their disappointing 2-15 record, underlying metrics indicate the Carolina Panthers were better than their win-loss results suggest. They struggled in tight games (2-6), which are typically unpredictable regardless of team quality.

Their average point differential of -10.6 suggests they performed more like a team expected to win around 3.5 games according to Pythagorean expectations, rather than just two wins. Historically, teams that underperform their Pythagorean win total by at least one win often exceed expectations the following season, boasting an 83-68-4 record (55.0%) in favor of surpassing their win total.

The Panthers’ main issue in 2023 was their offense, which averaged a dismal 13.9 points per game, tying for the league’s lowest with the Patriots. My doubts about the Panthers last season largely stemmed from Frank Reich, who struggled to effectively scheme without strong assistants (like Nick Sirianni, Jonathan Gannon, and Matt Eberflus), failed to effectively scout quarterback talent (with Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan in Indianapolis), and had difficulty fostering team unity and motivation (evidenced by their late-season collapse in 2021 and subsequent mid-season firings).

Now, new head coach Dave Canales takes over, known for his role in Baker Mayfield’s career-best season with Tampa Bay and Geno Smith’s success in Seattle in 2022. It’s noteworthy that Smith’s performance declined significantly after Canales left, with decreases in completion rate (69.8% to 64.7%), touchdown rate (5.2% to 4.0%), and passer rating (100.9 to 92.1).

Only time will reveal Canales’ leadership abilities and his ability to balance offensive game planning with head coaching duties. However, his track record of maximizing the potential of struggling first-round quarterbacks like Young suggests promising developments ahead.

Baltimore Ravens to Win Under 10.5 Games (+110, DraftKings)

I have several concerns regarding the Baltimore Ravens, particularly regarding their offensive line. The departure of Mike Macdonald is significant because of his strategic game-planning and scheming skills, which were crucial on a weekly basis.

Additionally, the defense has lost some key contributors. Jadaveon Clowney, in particular, was underrated for his impact on the defense last season. They also need to sort out their cornerback rotation.

I’m also skeptical about Todd Monken heading into his second year as offensive coordinator. Last year, I was optimistic about the Ravens due to their coaching hires, including Monken’s potential to surprise with Lamar Jackson. However, that element of surprise may no longer be as potent.

Despite having the largest net rest advantage, their schedule remains challenging. In fact, I rank their schedule as the sixth toughest in the NFL. Therefore, I have numerous uncertainties about this team.

Overall, while the Ravens are still a strong team, I see them more as a 9-10 win team rather than one capable of winning 11-12 games.

Win Total Lock

Indianapolis Colts to Win Under 8.5 Games (-120, DraftKings)

I’m heavily leaning towards betting against the Indianapolis Colts. This year presents new challenges, notably their poor net rest advantage of -17 days, one of the worst in the league. They only have one game where they enjoy more rest than their opponent, while in five games, their opponents have extra rest, with none facing opponents on short rest.

Anthony Richardson, who started four games last season, suffered two injuries and had limited rushes in the other two games. This workload isn’t sustainable for him over a full season. Joe Flacco, now serving as backup, had a solid stint with Cleveland but is 39 years old.

While the roster is solid, it lacks standout superstars. JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers in the secondary were Day 3 draft picks. Kenny Moore, their top cornerback, is 30 and primarily plays in the slot.

Overall, I anticipate this team finishing below .500, especially with Houston improving and the Jaguars showing potential.

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