The New England Patriots reached the big dance last season.
Chatter about their 2026 season revolves around assumptions that New England will face a down year.
Head coach Mike Vrabel offered a concise explanation Saturday when asked why teams that lose the Super Bowl often have trouble producing the same results one year later.
“I think it kind of speaks for itself. The expectations always get higher,” Vrabel told reporters. “Based on success, the rules, the draft, the schedule [and] all those things that come into it.”
The challenge applies directly to New England after a 14-3 season ended with a 29-13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.
The expectations changed once the Patriots became AFC champions, as the league’s scheduling formula added first-place opponents, and their draft position fell toward the end of each round.
Vrabel Has Seen the Follow-Up Challenge Before
GettyPITTSBURGH – OCTOBER 31: Linebacker Mike Vrabel #50 of the New England Patriots waits for the snap during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on October 31, 2004 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Steelers defeated the Patriots 34-20, handing New England their first loss of the season. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Vrabel’s view carries personal history.
He played linebacker for the 2007 Patriots, who won their first 18 games before a 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
New England returned the following season with championship expectations, but Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in the opener.
The Patriots still finished 11-5 in 2008, winning their final four games, but missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker.
That season showed how quickly the path can change.
A strong roster and an accomplished coaching staff carried New England to 11 wins, but one injury at the sport’s most important position reshaped everything around them.
Draft position also reflects the price of success.
The Patriots entered the 2026 NFL draft slotted 31st in each round before trading up three spots in the first.
A Patriots.com review of the class noted that New England’s rise meant choosing from a later tier of prospects after picking near the top one year earlier.
Patriots Get an Immediate Super Bowl Rematch
GettySAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 02: Head coaches Mike MacDonald of the Seattle Seahawks and Mike Vrabel of the New England Patriots shake hands during Super Bowl LX Opening Night at San Jose McEnery Convention Center on February 02, 2026 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The schedule leaves no room for a gradual reset.
New England will open the season at the Seattle Seahawks on Wednesday, Sept. 9, in the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 2016.
The Patriots’ official schedule release also includes six nationally televised games, a trip to Munich and eight opponents that reached the playoffs last season.
The first four games come against 2025 playoff teams. New England will also face the first-place finishers from the AFC North, AFC South and NFC West because it won the AFC East.
Recent runners-up provide enough evidence for Vrabel’s caution.
The San Francisco 49ers followed their Super Bowl LVIII loss with a 6-11 season. The Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 and missed the playoffs after losing Super Bowl LIX.
There are better outcomes.
The Cincinnati Bengals went 12-4 and returned to the AFC championship game after losing Super Bowl LVI. The Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 the next year, although their season ended with a 32-9 wild-card loss.
Vrabel’s point was that success changes the conditions surrounding a team.
Reaching the Super Bowl brought New England credibility, exposure and a larger target.
The Patriots will begin learning how well they handled those changes against the same opponent that ended their previous season.
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