Any list of memorable NCAA Tournament games from the first quarter of the century undoubtedly includes multiple Gonzaga entries, both against UCLA:
— The Sweet 16 thriller in 2006, when the Bruins rallied from 12 points down in the final seven minutes, overcame Adam Morrison’s 24 points and converted the winner with 10 seconds remaining.
— The 2021 semifinal, one of the greatest Final Four games ever played, in which the Zags survived in overtime on Jalen Suggs’ 40-foot buzzer beater.
Gonzaga’s opponent Saturday is not the Bruins. It’s Houston.
It’s not the Final Four or even the Sweet 16. It’s the second round.
And the Zags, who thumped Georgia in the first round, were not a pre-tournament favorite. They were seeded eighth, a member of the working class assigned long odds and a rugged path.
But don’t be distracted by the pedestrian trappings. The 5:40 p.m. tipoff (TNT) in Wichita possesses all the ingredients necessary for a thriller.
We would not be surprised if it’s the game of the tournament.
On one bench, the Cougars:
Top seed in the Midwest, coached by a future Hall of Famer in Kelvin Sampson, winner of the Big 12 regular season race by four games, champion of the Big 12 tournament, owner of a ferocious defense supported by a vastly improved perimeter offense and desperate — absolutely desperate — to return to the Final Four after back-to-back losses in the Sweet 16 as the No. 1 seed.
On the other bench, the Bulldogs:
A second-round participant for the 16th consecutive tournament, coached by a finalist for the Hall of Fame in Mark Few, winner of the West Coast Conference tournament, possessor of a silky smooth offense and rapidly-improving defense and desperate — absolutely desperate — to finally claim the national championship after two previous losses in the title game.
Understandably, Houston is favored by 5.5 points. The Cougars have been more consistent than Gonzaga throughout the season. They have more quality wins and fewer sketchy losses. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Cougars a 73 percent chance of winning.
But there’s another layer to this matchup, and it oozes intrigue.
The predictive metrics used by the NCAA selection committee suggest this is not a No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup.
Yes, Houston is worthy of its seed based on the Pomeroy efficiency ratings, which measure points per possession (scored and allowed) and take schedule strength into account. The ratings list Houston as the No. 3 team in the country.
But Gonzaga is far superior to an eighth seed. According to efficiency metrics, the Bulldogs should be … a No. 2 seed.
They are seventh overall in the Pomeroy ratings (out of 364 teams), with a top-10 offense and top-30 defense. The only teams rated higher than the Zags are Duke, Florida, Houston, Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama — the betting favorites.
So under-seeded are the Zags that you must scroll down the efficiency ratings to No. 28 to find the next team (Louisville) that was seeded eighth by the committee.
By that measure, Houston is facing the toughest second-round opponent of any No. 1 seed in tournament history.
“Gonzaga’s really good, perhaps under-seeded,” Georgia coach Mike White said after his team was run off the court Thursday afternoon. “Anxious to watch their next game.”
It took time — four months, in fact — but the Zags are finally playing like the team we expected all along. They have everything needed to not only topple the Cougars but roll deep into the tournament.
No position is more important in March than point guard, and the Zags have one of the best in Ryan Nembhard.
They have scorers and athleticism on the wings and size and skill up front.
They are playing with momentum and supreme confidence thanks to a five-game winning streak and a sizzling shooting performance (60 percent from 3-point range) against Georgia.
Above all, the Zags possess a Final Four pedigree.
They view Houston as their equal and the spotlight as an opportunity.
Based on the predictive metrics, Gonzaga is the best middle seed to ever take the floor in the NCAAs.
This is not No. 1 vs. No. 8, folks. This is more like No. 1 vs. No. 2.
It’s a second-round game with an Elite Eight vibe.
And win or lose, it could be another epic for the Zags.
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