The NBA trade rumor mill is wheezing these days, but it is still on the move. That’s thanks in large part to one of the most intractable situations of the summer thus far: the combination of the Nuggets’ second-apron follies and the restricted free agency of Peyton Watson.
The history of restricted free agency in the NBA suggests that no, Peyton Watson of the Nuggets won’t be signing the qualifying offer he received more than a month ago from Denver to open the offseason. For the uninitiated, a qualifying offer is basically a fifth-year option set by the rookie contract salary scale that the team can offer to players as they head into restricted free agency following their fourth season. The player can sign that QO as the fifth year of their deal, and become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.
Players and agents do not like going that route. There’s no security, especially coming off a rookie deal, when a player is looking to amass his first major contract. There have been past disasters for players who tried to cash in that way–and that was when free agency was a much more common tool of player movement. These days, you need an extension. Watson can sign his $6.5 million QO, but he’s at risk of being lost in the free-agent shuffle next season (like Jonathan Kuminga this year).
But the Nuggets know that. They Nuggets are also deep into the luxury tax and signing Watson would put them into the second apron. Given the restraints they have on adding a Watson contract, they have even more leverage than most teams in dealing with restricted free agents, and are more likely to force a legitimate choice between the QO and a team-friendly deal that would still pay him something like three times the QO.
We always downplay the possibility of players taking qualifying offers, but truly, Watson’s situation is different.
NBA Trade Rumors: No Easy Sign-and-Trade Options
Sign-and-trade options for Watson have not been fruitful. The Hawks, Clippers and Bucks are seen as the top suitors, but being in the second apron means the Nuggets are limited in what they can do on that market, too–they can’t remain above the second apron after a sign-and-trade, and Watson’s outgoing contract would have to be more than the Nuggets take in.
Shams Charania of ESPN reported that the Nuggets would take a first-round pick and a useful player in a deal for Watson, but it’s hard to line up the pieces for any of Watson’s potential suitors that would satisfy all three requirements here: That the Nuggets get under the second apron, that they get back a player they can use (plus a pick) and that Watson gets enough money that it’s worth it for him to pass on the QO and free agency.
The Clippers’ Derrick Jones Jr.? The Bucks’ Kyle Kuzma? The Hawks, the Cavaliers … none have the combination of players and flexibility to pull off a trade.
But of note: Teams around the league are very much hoping Watson takes the qualifying offer. There will be more financial flexibility on the market next summer. Certainly, the Lakers and Warriors would be among his suitors next summer, but teams potentially interested in Watson this year–the Bulls, Nets, Bucks and Clippers among them–will have cap space in 2027.
NBA Trade Rumors: Waiting on Klay Thompson
The situation around the Cavaliers’ signing of Mario Hezonja–which is not official–is being downplayed by folks around the NBA, but Sportando’s Alessandro Luigi Maggi writes that potential shenanigans with Hezonja’s Real Madrid buyout, “is shaking European basketball.”
The expectation here is that the Cavs will pay off his Spanish team and Hezonja will move forward in Cleveland, but the move might take some time to work out. Maybe a lot of time–Maggi mentions that there is suspicion that Hezonja is using the Cavaliers to escape his Real Madrid deal and eventually sign with another European team. He adds that the NBA could strike down the Hezonja deal, and: “Possible outcomes: a new buyout, Madrid retaining his European rights, or a legal battle.”
…..
The Miami Heat are eager to make a deal for Klay Thompson as a way to bolster the bench and add shooting. The team wants play-making, but there are few options on the market as things stand. Thompson is considered easier to get at this point, but if the Heat were hoping a Nikola Jovic-for-Thompson deal would work for Dallas, they’ve been disappointed. Jovic is young (23) but has a four-year, $62 million contract on the books.
Around the NBA, it appears to be a waiting game for Thompson to be waived and hit free agency.
OK, on to the Big Board …
NBA Trade Rumors: Steph & Other Stars
Was not expecting to be writing this in late July of this year, or ever, frankly. But there is a case to be made that Stephen Curry could ask out of Golden State, and that the Warriors would be willing to put him on the market. Longshot? Yeah, but not unrealistic. So he will lead us off …
Stephen Curry, Warriors. (Remaining contract: one year, $62 million.) We’ll believe it when we see it, but if Curry is unhappy with the direction of the Warriors and does not sign an extension next month, the implication will be clear–the greatest player in franchise history will look to end his career elsewhere. There are a ton of variables that would have to align to make it possible, but it will be a topic for the coming weeks.
Anthony Davis, Wizards. (Remaining contract: two years, $121 million, including player option.) Davis has been the subject of much speculation this offseason, but around the league, there isn’t a sense he is going to be dealt. The Wizards would like to get Davis on the floor and see if he can help them compete for a playoff spot. If not, he could be dealt by the February trade deadline.
Zion Williamson, Pelicans. (Remaining contract: two years, $87 million.) We’re not expecting Williamson to be moved by the end of the summer, but if he stays on the floor early in the year, New Orleans has plenty of incentive to find a new spot for him. A frontcourt of Derik Queen and Williamson makes little sense.
Kevin Durant, Rockets. (Remaining contract: two years, $90 million, player option.) There does not seem to be a market for Durant, who is 37 and has $90 million over two years on his contract. Rumors of Pistons interest has faded as the focus there is on re-signing Jalen Duren. Maybe a Durant deal comes back up after that gets done? It’s a longshot.
Jamal Murray, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: three years, $160 million.) The Nuggets are on track to operate over the second apron, which is not a place any team–especially a Kroenke team–likes to operate. Dealing Murray could shave some money off the cap but he was an All-Star last year and dumping him might be too much to ask of the Nuggets.
Jimmy Butler, Warriors. (Remaining contract: one year, $57 million.) It just does not appear that the Warriors are looking to move Butler. He’s the team’s main path to adding another star, as he is probably out until Christmas or later as he recovers from January ACL surgery. There are not many teams looking to add a rehabbing 36-year-old to their mix, and the Warriors are not likely to find a player who is better than Butler when healthy.
GettyStephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors
NBA Trade Rumors: 26-and-Under Bunch
It’s hard to bring in a young star–or even a young potential star–on the trade market. But there could be some wrangling for these guys, the 25-and-under (OK, 26 for Trey Murphy) crowd.
Moses Moody, Warriors. (Remaining contract: two years, $26 million.) Moody him self said he is “curious” about what will happen to him on the trade market. Will James’ decision change that? Moody is still on the roster, and James is not. He has developed into a valuable piece for Golden State, but a nasty knee injury could keep him out for much of next season.
Jalen Duren, Pistons. (Remaining contract: restricted free agent.) Sign-and-trade options for Duren are all but extinguished–were the Pistons ever really weighing a deal with the Kings for Domantas Sabonis? The Pistons have made moves to be able to give Duren more money, and that’s the likely way this all plays out.
Trey Murphy, Pelicans. (Remaining contract: three years, $88 million.) Murphy is a favorite in NBA trade rumors, but there are questions on how serious New Orleans would be about trading him. One exec says it will take a Desmond Bane-style offer (four first-round picks) to pry him from New Orleans, though that price has dropped a bit. Still, there’s been no movement yet, but perhaps the James logjam will get Murphy’s market moving again.
Peyton Watson, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: restricted free agent.) The long restricted free-agent slog is on for Watson, and the Nuggets have surprised many by not being aggressive in moving players to create some breathing room to keep Watson. The sign-and-trade market reportedly includes the Clippers, Hawks and Bucks, but there is not much yet that would attract the Nuggets’ attention on a deal.
Nikola Jovic, Heat. (Remaining contract: four years, $62 million.) There is trepidation about trading for Jovic, who is certainly available and is still only 23 years old. But the remaining contract is a hefty bite for teams to take.
NBA Trade Rumors: Eastern Conference Targets
The market is not done moving, and there in an Eastern Conference that should be wide open this year, there should be plenty of possibilities.
Jonathan Kuminga, Hawks. (Remaining contract: Free agent.) The Hawks have the rights to Kuminga so, though he is a free agent, his next deal could come via sign-and-trade. The Lakers and Cavs are of interest.
Michael Porter Jr., Nets. (Remaining contract: one year, $40 million, partial guarantee.) Porter is in the final year of his deal and wants an extension that starts at about what he is making now. The Nets likely won’t go that high, and if no middle ground is found, we are in for another heap of trade talk. Even if Porter is extended, he could be a trade candidate by next February’s deadline.
Grant Williams, Hornets. (Remaining contract: one year, $15 million.) The Hornets are not quite done with their roster, and Williams’ expiring deal has some value. He can still be a worthy big man off the bench.
Royce O’Neale, Hornets. (Remaining contract: two years, $21 million,) The Hornets would not be able to trade O’Neale with anyone else yet, so they could wait on a deal. But the team has gotten calls about moving him on after he’s come over from the Suns.
Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers. (Remaining contract: three years, $90 million.) It’s doubtful that the Cavaliers will make a big move on their frontcourt pieces–Allen and Evan Mobley–now that James is not coming to Cleveland. But there would be a market for Allen, who would be an easier pieces to trade.
Max Strus, Cavaliers. (Remaining contract: one year, $16 million.) The Cavs are trying hard to fit everything under the second apron, and that could mean moving off Strus, if they can find a taker.
Dennis Schroder, Cavaliers. (Remaining contract: one year, $14.6 million.) Schroder has played for 11 teams in the NBA so far, and the Cavs would be open to making it 12 as they seek to duck the second apron and still stay in the contending picture.
Myles Turner, Bucks. (Remaining contract: three years, $80 million.) Two things may well both be true on Turner–the Bucks are not shopping him because they want some veterans on hand, and there is no interest in him from other teams because of his contract. He’s still a logical target for a team that needs its young players to get minutes.
Kyle Kuzma, Bucks. (Remaining contract: one year, $20 million,) His expiring contract is attractive and if the Bucks pull a sign-and-trade for Peyton Watson, Bennedict Mathurin or Jonathan Kuminga, he figures to be involved.
GettyJarrett Allen #31 of the Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Trade Rumors: Western Conference Targets
Zeke Nnaji, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: four years, $32 million). Dumping Nnaji would get the Nuggets under the second apron and free them up to resolve Peyton Watson’s situation. The Hornets are a potential landing spot.
Jake LaRavia, Lakers. (Remaining contract: one year, $6 million.) Hustles, plays every game, but inconsistent. His contract makes him an attractive piece, though, as the Lakers figure out how to finish their roster.
Herb Jones, Pelicans. (Remaining contract: four years, $82 million, including player option.) Jones is a popular name on the market, but the Pelicans are said to want two first-round picks, and with Jones having struggled with injuries and his 3-point shot in the past two seasons, that’s probably too steep. His remaining contract scares off potential suitors, too.
Derrick Jones Jr., Clippers. (Remaining contract: one year, $10 million.) Jones is a defensive ace still, and his expiring contract gives the Clippers some wiggle room to move him. They’re caught in the Aspiration pause, however.
Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves. (Remaining contract: two years, $74 million, including player option.) The Wolves, according to a report in The Athletic, were offered Jaylen Brown with the Celtics wanting Rudy Gobert, plus picks, as part of a trade package. The Wolves turned that down, though there still has been interest in Gobert, who is up for an extension.
Keldon Johnson, Spurs. (Remaining contract: one year, $17.5 million.) The reigning Sixth Man of the Year is heading into the final season of his contract, and San Antonio is likely to phase out his minutes in favor of younger players. He is still a valued leader on the team, but he could be a chip worth cashing in if the Spurs can land a first-round pick.
Domantas Sabonis, Kings. (Remaining contract: two years, $93 million.) Sabonis has had some nibbles, but no bites. There was a rumor that the Hornets were planning to trade for him, but that proved fruitless. Then there was the Jalen Duren sign-and-trade with the Pistons, which was far-fetched from the beginning. This one might have to wait until the season gets going.
Jrue Holiday, Blazers. (Remaining contract: two years, $72 million, with player option.) Certainly, something has to give in Portland with the arrival of Morant. Holiday is not getting any younger, but he has value around the NBA.
Zach LaVine, Kings. (Remaining contract: one year, $49 million.) LaVine picked up the player option worth $49 million. There was some hope that he could be waived, but after the Kings let DeMar DeRozan go, they’ll keep LaVine on the books and hope they can find a place to dump him.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: three years, $110 million.) Gordon has struggled to stay healthy, but is still a valued connective piece when he plays. He needs to be a No. 3/4 option on a good team, and teams aren’t falling over themselves to cough up assets for that, and the Nuggets have not pushed hard for a trade.
Daniel Gafford, Mavericks. (Remaining contract: 3 years, $54 million.) Gafford will be 28 in October, and with the Mavs focused on getting younger, moving him along has been one of the team’s top options. The concern is whether the guy the Mavs want to be their stalwart center–Dereck Lively II–can stay healthy. Lively has played 98 games in three seasons.
PJ Washington, Mavericks. (Remaining contract: 4 years, $90 million.) Like Gafford, Washington is aging out of the Mavericks’ timeline, as he turns 28 this summer. He’s a stretch 4 who plays good defense, but his shooting has been suspect–he made just 32.5% of his 3s last year. Washington’s extension kicks in this year, though, so he might be a better trade target down the line.
Klay Thompson, Mavericks. (Remaining contract: one year, $17 million.) Another aging Mav! Thompson does not fit Dallas’s timeline, and if the Mavs can get anything–youth, a few second-rounders–for him, they will. He’s still a 38% 3-point shooter. The addition of Tarik Biberovic is more incentive to move Thompson, who could be bought out.
Cam Johnson, Nuggets. (Remaining contract: one year, $23 million.) Johnson has been a disaster in Denver, and he has been a prominent feature on the NBA trade rumor mill for years now. He still has enough of a reputation around the league to warrant trade interest, but the Nuggets value the fact that he has an expiring contract.
What’s Been Done: NBA’s Big Deals
The NBA trade rumor mill has had a busy summer, interspersed with some controversy. Here are the top rumors that sprouted into actual trades …
Celtics-Sixers Trade
Boston’s controversial decision to move Brown as he neared an extension on a supermax contract set off a round of second apron discussion in the NBA.
Celtics get: Paul George, a 2028 first-round pick that could convert to a swap, Philly’s 2031 unprotected first-rounder, and two second-round picks.
Sixers get: Jaylen Brown.
Heat-Bucks Trade
The deal that kicked off the summer was the one most expected to be expanded, but wound up staying a two-teamer. The Bucks are banking on this being enough for a rebuild, and the Heat were hoping this precedes a LeBron James return. Alas …
Bucks get: Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakucionis go to Milwaukee. Also Bucks got the 13th pick in the draft (Nate Ament) and future first-rounders, in 2031 and 2033, plus a future pick swap and a second-round pick.
Heat get: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis.
Hornets-Timberwolves-Nets-Bulls Trade
The Wolves combined their two major transactions, taking a chance on bringing in LaMelo Ball and getting off the contract of Julius Randle.
Timberwolves get: LaMelo Ball, Josh Green, No. 33 pick (Isaiah Evans).
Hornets get: Naz Reid, Mouhamadou Gueye, rights to Matteo Spagnolo, Minnesota’s first-round pick in 2033, second round picks in 2029, 2032 and 2033, plus three swaps, also from Minnesota.
Nets get: Julius Randle, No. 28 pick (Joshua Jefferson).
Bulls get: Nic Claxton
Grizzlies-Blazers trade
Memphis finally moves on from Ja Morant, and was able to do so by taking on Jerami Grant’s contract–but did not have to include outgoing draft capital.
Grizzlies get: Jerami Grant and Kris Murray.
Blazers get: Ja Morant.
Clippers-Pistons-Grizzlies-Mavericks-Wizards-Bucks Trade
A classic NBA deal that started as Isaiah Stewart going to Memphis, but ballooned since.
Grizzlies get: Isaiah Stewart, D’Angelo Russell, AJ Johnson, five second-round picks. (Lose: Santi Aldama.)
Pistons get: John Collins, Taurean Prince, Gary Harris. (Lose: Isaiah Stewart, Caris LeVert, Marcus Sasser.)
Clippers get: Trade exception. (Lose: John Collins.)
Wizards get: Khris Middleton. (Lose: D’Angelo Russell.)
Bucks get: Caris LeVert. (Lose: Taurean Prince, Gary Harris, AJ Johnson.)
Mavericks get: Santi Aldama, Marcus Sasser. (Lose: Khris Middleton.)
Raptors-Clippers Trade
Now, this trade has been undone punishment for the Aspiration scandal has yet to be doled out, but it’s still likely to get done once that situation is settled. There are still a lot of questions about when that might be, though.
Raptors get: Kawhi Leonard.
Clippers get: Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two first-round picks (2031 and 2033), plus a swap and two second-round picks.
Suns-Hornets Trade
The Hornets had been looking for a taker for Bridges, whose past domestic violence charges scared off many teams. But Charlotte attached draft capital and the Suns took him in.
Suns get: Miles Bridges, 2029 first-round pick, 2027 second-round pick.
Hornets get: Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, 2033 first-round pick.
Hawks-Thunder-Mavericks Trade
The Thunder jettisoned Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins for second-round picks early in July, and got all the way under the second apron by moving Lu Dort later in a three-team deal that saw former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher dealt, too.
Hawks get: Lu Dort, Ryan Nembhard.
Thunder get: Three second-round picks.
Mavericks get: Zaccharie Risacher.
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