As the NBA regular season wraps up, and many playoff teams are battling for position, the race to the bottom of the NBA is heating up.
Like the gold rush in the Old West, teams outside of the Playoffs are trying to bury their record as low as possible for the possibility of the number one pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Though this is common this late in the season, this season might be worse. With several high end prospects in draft led by the crown jewel in Cooper Flagg, league executives are expecting to see race to the bottom of the NBA that’s never been seen before, as noted by ESPN analyst Tim Bontemps. As explained, the tanking race is unique because of the mix of bad teams and injuries.
“But this season — with the combination of Duke star Cooper Flagg — a generational prospect — and the usual rebuilding teams (including the Jazz, Raptors and Washington Wizards) joined by several others (the Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans) that have had their seasons cut short because of a series of injuries — the race to the bottom is breaking new ground.”
This year’s Draft is unique because of the teams involved as well as the Draft lottery structure. The top three worst records will have a 14% chance to win the 1st overall pick, which used to be 25% chance, and each team following has their odds drop further and further. The NBA did this to discourage the practice of tanking, but it’s been a mixed result.
The NBA will always have a tanking issue, and this isn’t the first year that highlights that. Since the new lottery was instituted, the team with the worst record has never won the lottery. The NBA tries to discourage tanking by giving the worst teams less of a chance, but this also undermines their point of parity in the NBA.
The race to the bottom of the NBA is essential because teams need talent. Teams like the Charlotte Hornets or Washington Wizards aren’t getting many high-end free agents, regardless of the CBA, and need to draft players, but are handcuffed by the new lottery odds, and with teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers, both of whom have major injuries, can further their own playoff aspirations. Teams that need the number one picks are now cast aside for any team who can build their pool.
Tanking isn’t going to go away, and with the seven teams at the bottom of the standings, they’re all going for the same goal. Not all of them need it, but there’s a decent chance that any of these teams can get it. How is there parity when any team in the NBA can sacrifice a season when teams at the bottom really need it? Charlotte isn’t signing anyone, but Philadelphia can. That is not parity.
The race to the bottom will be one of the most interesting in league history, but can the real worst teams in the league get a break?
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