Despite a talented roster and the highest-paid manager in baseball, the Cubs failed to make the postseason for the 4th straight season in 2024. While their underlying metrics suggest they were a much better team, the reality is that the Cubs went a measly 83-79 in a weak NL central division. However, optimism is high once again in the windy city, with offseason additions to bolster the roster paired with the development of their young stars. Publications like MLB.com see the Cubs as a slightly above-average team with the talent to make some noise They ranked the Cubbies as the thirteenth-best team in all of baseball. With some early projections favoring the Cubs to win 90 or more games, the Cubs hope this is the year they snap their eight-season-long playoff win drought.
A star has arrived
For starters, the Cubs may have finally found a star for the first time in years. Since 2019 the Cubs have not had a single player with a bWAR total over 5, back when Javier Baez was in peak El Mago form. That streak may end this season with the addition of superstar Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros. Kyle Tucker has been incredible for the Astros and has cumulated 21.2 bWAR since the 2021 season. He also managed an OPS above .990 last season albeit in just 78 games due to injury. This is the caliber of player the Cubs have lacked since the days of the World Series team. Kyle Tucker can turn a good lineup into a great one and turn a .500 team into a contender.
Great position player talent
While Kyle Tucker may be the bell of the ball, he is hardly the only good player on this team. He may be the only great one, but this Cubs team has no shortage of talent to work with. Staying in the outfield, speedy defensive wizard Pete Crow-Armstrong looks to replicate his second-half offensive numbers from last season while adding his all-world defense and base running ability. And in left, the ever-reliable Ian Happ, who has quietly become one of the game’s best left fielders. The infield features Michael Busch coming off a spectacular rookie season, Gold glove winners Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson up the middle, and highly touted prospect Matt Shaw to man the hot corner. Catcher is a bit of a question for the Cubs as Miguel Amaya will likely need to make big improvements to stick behind the plate long-term.
The Cubs expect to boast one of the best overall defenses while also making big contributions with their bats. Offensively the Cubs will enjoy the boost of Kyle Tucker’s bat, but will also be aided by Seiya Suzuki. The recently demoted right fielder will produce for the Cubs almost strictly with his bat as his -3 outs above average last season hurt the Cubs defensively.
Despite the defensive struggles, the Japanese slugger can still be a great offensive player for the Cubs. His .848 OPS last season led the team, and perhaps being able to solely focus on his hitting will allow the former NPB All-Star to unlock his true potential at the plate. Despite the fact that the catcher and third base are question marks, the Cubs could put their position player talent up against almost anyone.
A dangerous rotation
The Cubs pitching staff is nothing to sneeze at either. Starters Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga both have ace potential and both produced excellent 2024 seasons. Shota Imanaga was a sensation last season as he had one of the greatest starts to a rookie season in MLB History. Justin Steele has posted an ERA under 3.20 for three straight seasons and is undoubtedly the Cub’s emotional leader in the locker room.
Additionally, Jameson Tailon posted his best season since 2018 with a 3.27 ERA over 165 IP last season and slots in very nicely in the middle of the rotation. The bottom of the Cubs rotation will feature free-agent acquisitions Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea alongside Ben Brown, Javier Assad, and Jordan Wicks. This rotation will likely continue to be a strength for the Cubs as pitching coach Tommy Hottovy has done an excellent job managing the Cubs staff thus far in his tenure.
New faces in the Bullpen
If you asked Cubs fans what position group sabotaged this team’s 2024 season, the vast majority would point to the bullpen. The Cubs last year struggled to get outs in big spots and to close games. While their bullpen graded out statistically as a middle-of-the-road unit, Cubs fans would tell you those numbers were a bit deceitful. After not being able to recapture the ‘23 magic from Adbbert Alzolay, the Cubs turned to Hector Neris as their closer. He rewarded them with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.523 WHIP, hardly the numbers you expect from a closer of a contending team.
This year the Cubs dipped back in the Houston Astros reliever well by trading for Ryan Pressley, who has made it clear he wants to be the closer. Hopefully, with some stability in the closer role, the Cubs can let their young talented arms such as Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, and Keegan Thompson thrive in a less stressful role. Add to this the veteran presence of pitchers such as Tyson Miller, Eli Morgan, and Julian Merriweather and the Cubs bullpen could be a net positive if all goes well.
So are the Cubs finally back?
The question for the Cubs is not a matter of talent, it is execution. While Cubs President Jed Hoyer and General Manager Carter Hawkins have assembled a good team on paper, the Cubs will need to avoid their annual months-long hitting slump and bullpen catastrophes to contend. With the additions made to the roster this offseason, and hopefully some better luck, I believe the Chicago Cubs could win the NL Central division and become true contenders in the postseason. And if they don’t, Jed Hoyer may want to start packing his bags and finding a good realtor.
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