MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 8

Ryan Feltner Over 15.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-100, DraftKings)

At first glance, Ryan Feltner’s numbers might raise eyebrows, but he’s proven to be more effective than his 5.60 ERA and 1.46 WHIP suggest. Advanced metrics paint a clearer picture, showing his 4.14 xERA and 4.12 FIP, which are significantly better than his surface stats. While his expected batting average is in the 25th percentile, his metrics like average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are all above average.

This season, Feltner has surpassed this out line in 9 out of 17 starts, with a stronger performance on the road where he’s cleared it in 6 out of 9 outings. His road ERA is two runs lower than at Coors Field, and he’s holding opponents to a .267 average (.325 at home). Crucially for this bet, he has maintained excellent control, throwing strikes 53.2% of the time, which has led to a low walk rate (75th percentile).

Recently, Feltner has shown solid form against tough opponents like Houston and Milwaukee. Facing the Cincinatti Reds tonight, who have struggled against right-handed pitching with an 83 wRC+ over the last 14 days (5th lowest), Feltner should capitalize. They’ve been aggressive at the plate but might struggle to run up his pitch count.

The main concern is Feltner’s performance the third time through the order, where he has struggled with a .378 average and .445 wOBA. However, in recent starts against formidable opponents like the Dodgers and Astros, he’s been allowed to face 25 hitters, suggesting he could get a similar opportunity tonight against a weaker opponent.

While the Rockies bullpen is rested, Feltner might not have a long leash if he struggles beyond the third time through the order. However, we anticipate him keeping his pitch count manageable to pitch into the sixth inning.

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