Tylor Megill has shown flashes of promise during his up-and-down four seasons with the New York Mets. After a strong showing in 2024, Megill appeared on the radar screens of some MLB analysts as a potential breakout player this season.
Still, Megill arrived at spring training in a similar spot as the previous four seasons, without a guaranteed job and in a battle for a rotation spot. But with injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, Megill earned that spot, and the 29-year-old has made the most of it.
Megill has won both of his starts this season, allowing just five hits and one run in 10.1 innings, with 10 strikeouts and four walks. However, given Megill’s age, at least one MLB analyst is warning against putting much faith in a breakout campaign for Megill.
Tylor Megill Has Won First Two Starts, Allowing Just One Run
In a “Buy or Sell” column for Bleacher Report, Joe Reuter notes that the 6-foot-7 right-hander has quietly given the Mets four years of steady depth, tallying 67 starts and 341.1 innings with a 4.56 ERA along the way. Reuter adds that, while not a frontline option, Megill remains a dependable piece, capable of delivering serviceable, league-average performance when needed, but stresses that “a few months shy of his 30th birthday and with the same repertoire as in years past a true breakout still feels unlikely.”
But there’s no denying the impact Megill has had during the early part of the season. In his most recent start, a 5-0 victory over the Blue Jays on Friday in the team’s home opener, Megill pitched 5.1 scoreless innings, allowing two hits and three walks with four strikeouts.
“He’s keeping it simple and attacking hitters,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “I thought he used all of his pitches today in a good way. I thought he slowed the game down.”
It actually continues a stretch of solid games for Megill that began at the end of the 2024 season. In fact, the Mets have won Megill’s last eight starts since Aug. 30, and he has posted a 1.96 ERA during that stretch.
Tylor Megill Has Displayed Improvements to Support Breakout Predictions
GettyNew York Mets pitcher Tylor Megill has won his first two starts this season, allowing just one run in 10.1 innings.
The Rising Apple, a Mets-related news site affiliated with FanSided, took an in-depth look at the improvements Megill made over the 2024 season, analyzing his statistics that provide support for a possible breakout.
In 2024, Megill threw 78 innings, finishing with a 4.04 ERA and an even more promising 3.55 FIP. While his 9.5% walk rate ticked slightly above average, he achieved a career-best 27% strikeout rate. Perhaps even more encouraging: for the first time at the MLB level, he kept his home run rate under 1.0 HR/9, coming in at 0.92.
Advanced metrics paint an even brighter picture. Megill posted a 3.81 SIERA and a 3.79 xFIP, both pointing toward better underlying performance. He generated a whiff rate of 28%, a sizable jump from 23.6% the year before. He also leaned on a diverse six-pitch mix in 2024, with five offerings producing whiff rates of at least 27%. His splitter, in particular, stood out — delivering a 42.9% whiff rate, ranking 13th among pitchers who threw it to a minimum of 25 batters. Megill used the splitter 7.5% of the time last year.
Beyond whiffs, he also saw improvements in his ability to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. His chase rate jumped to 30.2% in 2024 — a substantial increase from his previous high of 25.4% set in 2022. Though his 88.9 mph average exit velocity allowed was still slightly below the MLB average, it marked a personal best. Meanwhile, his 10% barrel rate aligned closely with his career norms.
Pitch quality gains helped drive much of that progress. Megill’s fastball velocity climbed from an average of 94.9 mph in 2023 to 95.7 mph last season, while his vertical movement tightened — dropping from 15.7 inches of drop to 13.8. His Stuff+ score, a metric that grades raw pitch quality, rose from a below-average 89 in 2023 to an above-average 103 in 2024.
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