The last two NBA champions could not be any more different in terms of the shots they prefer to take.
The Boston Celtics comfortably led the league in 3-point attempts per game with 42.5 last season, won their 18th banner, then took the trend to new extremes. They’re averaging 50.2 attempts this season, the most in NBA history and six more than any other team in 2024-25.
The Denver Nuggets are also leaning further into their greatest strength. They lead the league in points in the paint with 58.8 per game. In the half-court offense, they play through Nikola Jokic more than ever. He touches the ball 110.4 times per night, 10 more than his NBA-leading total last season. In transition, they send battering rams at the rim in Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook. They’re the only team averaging 20 on fast breaks.
Both recent champions are elite at what they do best.
The only problem Denver might be forced to reckon with on Tuesday (8 p.m., TNT) is math.
Boston’s offensive focal point is worth three points. Denver’s is worth two.
The Nuggets (20-14) continue to average the fewest 3-point attempts in the NBA, with 31.1, almost precisely consistent with the last two seasons. Still, they have the fourth-best offensive rating in the league, scoring 117 points per 100 possessions. They’re staying afloat in the loaded Western Conference at fourth place (as of Monday) despite wildly inconsistent defensive effort from night to night.
But against teams as perimeter-dependent as Boston, the math can take a toll. It certainly did when Denver faced Cleveland twice in December. The Cavaliers rank fifth in 3-point attempts, and they got up 48 in both matchups.
The Nuggets attempted 55 between those two games combined. They were swept in the season series by a total of 26 points. Both contests were within reach, but they lost the 3-point line by 72.
The Celtics are a more extreme manifestation of the same threat. In late December, Malone compared the two Eastern Conference powers when he acknowledged that coaches around the league might have to start living with what opponents generate at the rim in order to prevent 3s.
“Some of these guards, the pull-up three is becoming like a layup for guys,” Malone said then, adding that “Boston has a luxury of (having) five 3-point shooters on the court when they’re healthy. Five.”
That would be the starting lineup that shepherded Boston through most of last season to a championship: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis. But even with Brown and Holiday struggling from the perimeter this season, the Celtics have lethal options off the bench. Payton Pritchard’s 42.4% clip is the best in the NBA among all players who have attempted 245 or more 3s. He has taken 302.
So as the Nuggets prepared for the challenge with a practice on Monday, acceptance was part of the messaging.
“No matter what you do, they’re gonna get 50 3s up. I really believe that,” Malone said. “Nineteen of their 50 3s they take are off the bounce. They’re shooting pull-up 3s in transition. They’re shooting pull-up 3s in pick-and-rolls. That is their thing offensively. ‘We’re gonna just put a lot of 3s up.’ … And they shoot the same number of 3s in wins and losses. But their percentage is much different. Point being, they’re gonna get 50 up. That’s just how they’re wired. But it’s the quality of three they get up. You cannot be down the floor inside the 3-point line in transition. In pick-and-rolls, you cannot be down the floor and give Tatum, Brown, Pritchard, Holiday (and) White easy walk-in 3s.”
Against most teams, Malone likes to mix up defensive coverages. He often emphasizes the importance of giving an opposing star player different looks. When the Nuggets faced the Spurs last weekend, they switched more frequently than usual. When they pulled off a comeback win in Sacramento last month, they took the Kings out of rhythm by going to a zone in the fourth quarter.
But how much can the Nuggets afford to mix things up against a team like Boston? If Jokic isn’t defending every pick-and-roll at the level of the screen, poor screen navigation from Denver’s guards could result in a barrage of pull-ups, like Malone alluded to on Monday.
“When you’re at the level (of the screen) and they have a roller … you need somebody to take that roll,” the 10th-year coach said in December. “That’s leaving one guy to guard two, and that’s where you have to have KYP (know-your-personnel) discipline and really just a tremendous fly-around mentality, where it might not always be perfect, but when you work hard and give second and third efforts, good things are going to happen.”
Denver was the only team that swept its season series against Boston in 2023-24. In both wins, the Nuggets held the eventual champs below their season average in 3-pointers — even when the attempts were sky-high. This year, Boston is up from 16.5 to 18.4 3s per game (36.7%).
If both teams attempt their standard number of 3s, and both teams convert at league-average efficiency (35.9%), the Celtics will outscore the Nuggets by 21 points from outside the arc.
“You ain’t gonna be able to stop them from shooting them,” Russell Westbrook said. “But you’ve just gotta be able to make them difficult shots. That’s it. Make them difficult shots, and rebound the ball. And then do what we do.”
Gordon remains out
Aaron Gordon will not play against the Celtics, but he did participate in portions of practice on Monday, Malone said. The power forward has sat out Denver’s last six games with a right calf strain, which also caused him to miss 11 games earlier in the season.
“I’m not sure about the Clippers game (Wednesday) or the Brooklyn game (Friday),” Malone said. “But all I know is that today was a positive day. A step in the right direction. I asked him as he was going through practice how he felt, and he said he was feeling really good. So hopefully when he wakes up tomorrow — because this was the most he’s done in a while — when he wakes up, hopefully he’s feeling just as well.”
Elsewhere around the league, ESPN reported that Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving will miss at least one or two weeks with a back injury, meaning Dallas might be without both Luka Doncic and Irving when the Nuggets visit for a pair of games starting Sunday.
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