SANTA CLARA — The New England Patriots aren’t going anywhere at their current pace of 13 points per game, but that isn’t the number that has 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan concerned.
In their first two games — a win over Cincinnati and an overtime loss to Seattle — the Patriots ran the ball 75 times. The yardage in those games (355 yards) is almost superfluous. Any team that can run the ball that many times in two games is to be feared.
There are more statistics than ever available in the analytics age. Yards after the catch, yards after contact, air yards on each pass. Separation is calculated on every play between receivers and defensive backs. There are formulas and data for just about anything. The 49ers have people on the payroll that pay attention to all of it.
But if you really want an indicator as to which team is getting the better of things where the 49ers are concerned, look at rushing attempts. Not even the yardage, so much as the attempt to run.
If the 49ers (1-2) run the ball more than 30 times against the Patriots Sunday at Levi’s Stadium, they’ll probably win. If they don’t, and the Patriots (1-2) get into 30-plus territory, it’s a recipe for a third disaster in four games.
The rules favor passing offenses more than ever, but it’s clear that abandoning the run, either through game circumstance or play-selection, is a problem for a team coached by Shanahan.
Since 2021, the year the 49ers re-entered the NFL stratosphere as a team to be reckoned with, they are 33-3 in games with 30 or more rushing attempts and 6-1 in the playoffs. When the 49ers don’t run the ball 30 times during that span, they’re 22-28 and 2-3 in the postseason — including two Super Bowl losses to the Chiefs.
The 49ers lost for just the third time since 2019 with 30 or more rushes (31 carries for 124 yards) in last week’s 27-24 loss to the Rams, although it’s worth noting that 10 of those rushes (for 41 yards) came from quarterback Brock Purdy on designed pass plays.
Through three games, Jordan Mason, the lead back in the absence of Christian McCaffrey, is second in the NFL with 324 yards and leads the league with 67 carries. Besides Purdy, no other 49er other than Deebo Samuel has 10 carries.
Shanahan talks often of the importance of rushing attempts, which has some fans wondering why he simply doesn’t hand the ball off time and time again until he reaches 30. Shanahan’s wife Mandy, who apparently shares his propensity for being a smart-aleck, has asked him why he simply doesn’t open a game with 20 straight runs after one of his frequent press conference briefings on the importance of rushing attempts.
Thirty rushes is something that happens because a lot of things go right. It means the offense is converting third downs, giving the opportunity for additional rushing plays. It means the defense is getting off the field on third down, which leads to more rushing plays. It means there’s usually a lead involved and a desire to kill the clock.
Shanahan says he doesn’t lecture via power point, but will occasionally stress in pregame the need for rushing plays, while at the same time understanding it’s a function of all 53 players.
“That’s why I say it usually to the team as a challenge,” Shanahan said. “Our goal in normal situations is to be 50-50 (in terms of run-pass). But when you get over 30 carries, it’s rarely because the offense is dominating. It’s usually that all three phases are and the way the game goes.”
Deebo Samuel (1) has 10 carries for 13 yards from scrimmage in two games for the 49ers. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group) Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group
The reason Shanahan is so highly regarded as a quarterbacks coach is because his teams can run the ball with inside and outside zone and the resulting play-action and bootleg opportunities that come with it. Those running plays serve as a boxer’s left jab — even if they don’t always find the mark — to set up a run-suspecting opponent for a quick-strike pass. It provides the balance Purdy needs to go from very good to great at football’s most important position.
Upon taking the job with the Raiders in 1998 with the reputation of being a pass offense and quarterback guru, Jon Gruden surprised reporters by answering his own question: “You know why it’s great to run the ball for four yards on first down? Because you can run it again.”
The constant threat of the run, and the willingness to use it, builds a mental and physical toughness while wearing down a defense. The first time the 49ers made the playoffs under Shanahan, they ran the ball 89 times in one-sided wins over Minnesota and Green Bay where Jimmy Garoppolo was a handoff machine before getting 22 rushes in a 31-20 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV.
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It’s that kind of game that has Shanahan worried about New England. If the Patriots can run the ball enough times, it means they’re stopping the run themselves, getting off the field on third down, and it doesn’t matter if quarterback Jacoby Brissett is spending most of the game handing off to power backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson.
“The way they play defense, their two running backs, the way they’re committed to the run, the type of quarterback they have, I think that makes them a very good team,” Shanahan said.
And the fewer amount of times the 49ers run the ball, the better the Patriots will be.