The Toronto Maple Leafs 6-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on Saturday night, as bad as it was, actually brought about something good.
The loss dropped the Leafs to the fifth-worst spot in the NHL. Toronto sits three points ahead of the New York Rangers and one behind the Seattle Kraken.
This is a race to the bottom. And that race to the bottom has momentarily returned the Maple Leafs their 2026 first-round pick.
As fans may recall, the Maple Leafs’ first-rounder in the 2026 NHL Draft went to the Boston Bruins in the Brandon Carlo trade last season. What few people paid attention to was the fact that the pick was top-5 protected.
At the time, no one cared about that. Surely the Maple Leafs weren’t going to miss the playoffs in 2025-26, let alone finish in the bottom five of the league.
But that’s how things stand at this point.
Toronto has two games remaining on its schedule, and could drop even further. That situation makes it all the more plausible for the organization to keep its original first-rounder. That’s a crucial situation, considering how deep this year’s draft could be.
Maple Leafs Could Move Up, but Could Also Move Down
As it stands, Tankathon projects the Maple Leafs to have an 8.5% chance of winning the NHL Draft Lottery and landing the first-overall pick. That’s a heck of a lot better than the New York Islanders’ last season. The Isles moved from 10th to first when the Draft Lottery was over.
That said, the Leafs could move up a couple of spots to, say, third or second. Such a development would guarantee the Leafs keep their pick.
The opposite, nonetheless, could also happen. The NHL Draft Lottery rules state that a team can only drop back two spots. That means that if the Leafs finish the season in the fifth-overall slot, but drop two spots back, that would leave them in seventh, and return the pick to the Boston Bruins.
If such a scenario unfolded, it would be devastating for the Toronto Maple Leafs. After all, they would have nothing to show for a terrible season.
Still, it’s worth pointing out that the Leafs could drop a couple of more spots. But that would require the Rangers and the Calgary Flames winning their remaining games to leapfrog past Toronto.
That situation seems unlikely, as just about every team at the bottom of the standings wants to lock in the best-possible draft position.
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What Happens to Toronto’s Pick Pledged to Bruins?
Should the Maple Leafs keep their own pick in 2026, the Bruins would actually enter into a bit of a tussle with the Philadelphia Flyers.
If the Leafs keep the 2026 pick, their 2027 pick shifts to the Bruins. The Leafs, however, also pledged their 2027 first-rounder to the Flyers in the Scott Laughton trade last season. As such, the Leafs essentially pledged the same pick twice.
Again, no one thought this situation would be an issue last season. The situation is trending towards the Leafs deciding who gets the 2027 first-rounder. Assuming Toronto decides to give Boston its 2027 first-rounder, the Flyers would get their 2028 first-round selection.
It’s remarkable how a seemingly implausible scenario actually came to pass. And it will make for an interesting period leading up to the 2026 NHL Draft.
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