The summer season, while fabulously warm and sunny, has also meant a slowdown in the usual NHL chatter. But there’s one interesting Maple Leafs trade thesis that might actually make sense leading up to training camp.
A recent piece in The Athletic by Josh Yohe stirred the pot a little bit by positing that the Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t particularly inclined to re-sign Erik Karlsson. Yohe took it one step further by suggesting that the Pens should trade Karlsson now as he’s entering the final year of his current deal.
On the flip side, the Maple Leafs have this seemingly endless saga with Morgan Rielly. Rumors have not gone away regarding a potential trade involving Rielly and numerous West Coast teams.
But what if the Maple Leafs and Penguins were able to pull off a 1-for-1 deal involving Karlsson and Rielly?
Would that sort of trade make any sort of sense for either team?
The bottom line is that this thesis could actually prove reasonable for both teams.
The Maple Leafs essentially want to get out from under Rielly, and most notably, his contract. Perhaps keeping Rielly wouldn’t be an issue if his cap hit was lower. Alas, it is not, and it’s causing some issues for the Chayka administration.
Meanwhile, the Penguins don’t seem to keen on keeping Karlsson. So, why not trade him now after a resurgent season last year? His value is high. But most importantly, the Penguins would be happy to shed the final year of his contract.
For the Penguins, dumping the last $10 million on the Maple Leafs would allow them to make additional reinforcements throughout the lineup.
Maple Leafs Could Afford Karlsson’s Cap Hit in Swap Involving Rielly
The $10 million question is whether the Maple Leafs would be able to afford Karlsson’s cap hit. The bottom line is that Toronto would be able to take on that commitment for one season, especially if it means shipping out Rielly’s $7.5 million cap hit.
Now, there would still be a $2.5 million gap. Plus, the Maple Leafs are already over the cap by $2.75 million. If Max Domi goes on LTIR to start the season, Toronto would get some relief there.
But more cap gymnastics would be necessary to balance the books. According to PuckPedia, the Leafs have 15 forwards on the active roster. So, there could be a deal to be made somewhere. Maybe there’s someone out there willing to take Dakota Joshua. The 30-year-old has a 12-team no-trade list, so something could be worked out. Otherwise, the math might just not work out.
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Toronto Would Have to Extend Karlsson
The other consideration would be extending Karlsson beyond this upcoming season. Even if the deal happened tomorrow morning, it would be too premature to assess a potential extension. The two sides would most likely play out the season and determine if they’re a good fit.
That’s why the Maple Leafs would consider an extension after the season. The big question at that point would be how much Toronto would be willing to pay. While it certainly wouldn’t be $11.5 million AAV, Karlsson might still want something closer to Rielly’s original cap hit.
If that were the case, and Karlsson became the puck-moving defenseman the Maple Leafs so desperately need, it would be out of the question to see the Buds give the 36-year-old one last multi-year deal.
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