The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
At this point in the year, who will win Big 12 men’s basketball Coach of the Year? Feels like it should be either Texas Tech’s Grant McCasland or Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd, with Houston’s Kelvin Sampson a distant third. Arizona and Texas Tech play each other Saturday night in Tucson. — @EMBWildcat21
Let’s reframe the question slightly: Who’s the logical choice for midseason Big 12 Coach of the Year?
If you include non-conference results, then McCasland and Sampson have stronger cases than Lloyd — their teams have been more consistent since early November.
If the timeframe is limited to conference play, then Lloyd becomes the clear frontrunner with McCasland second and perhaps Utah’s Craig Smith third.
(That’s not a misprint, folks. The Utes were picked 16th in the preseason media poll and are tied for eighth, a single game behind Baylor and Brigham Young.)
Essentially, the Wildcats have experienced two seasons in one. They were 6-5 in non-conference play with a noticeable dearth of quality wins compared to previous seasons under Lloyd. But in Big 12 games, they are 10-1.
The Hotline would argue the demarcation point wasn’t the competitive shift from non-conference play to the league season but, rather, the early-December injury to center Mo Krivas. His absence freed up rotation space for skilled, 7-foot forward Henri Veesaar, whose impact on tempo and cohesiveness has been substantial.
(In that regard, Veesaar reminds us of a lesser version of quarterback Noah Fifita, whose insertion into the lineup did wonders for Arizona football in the fall of 2023.)
There is one added layer to the Big 12 midseason Coach of the Year discussion, however: Should Lloyd get full credit for the Wildcats’ transformation?
Or could you argue that the Wildcats underachieved early because Lloyd (uncharacteristically) wasn’t properly using the pieces?
That absent Krivas’ injury, Arizona would be the same mediocre team it was in November and December?
We don’t view it that way, but coaches vote for postseason awards and can view things from a completely different lens — a lens often clouded by intra-conference politics and jealousies.
If you imagine Big 12 coaches casting hypothetical ballots at this point, it’s probably reasonable to wonder how they would view Lloyd’s performance, the Krivas injury and Arizona’s two seasons in one.
Is SMU’s success in the ACC (e.g., College Football Playoff berth and potential NCAA Tournament bid) more of an indictment on Pac-12 leadership that the conference did not add the Mustangs immediately after the summer 2022 bombshell? — @ReidSport
The list of indictments of Pac-12 commissioners and university presidents, not only in 2022-23 but across the 15 years, is long enough to stretch from Seattle to Tucson.
Yes, the refusal to add the obvious candidates, SMU and San Diego State, early in the purgatory phase is deserving of a top-five position.
The conference was dead set on landing a media rights deal before expanding, rather than the other way around. It never made sense to us, and we never received a good explanation for the strategy (probably because there wasn’t one).
If SMU had joined the Pac-12 under the terms of its eventual deal with the ACC (i.e., no TV revenue) and if San Diego State had entered the conference with a 25 percent share, for example, the 10 continuing members would have received $3 million to $4 million more annually in media rights than the $25 million proposed on the fateful week in Aug. 23.
That would not have solved the exposure piece (linear vs. streaming), which was so vexing for so long and ultimately pushed Washington to hit the eject button, with Oregon alongside.
But we don’t know how the media companies would have responded during the lengthy negotiation phase if the Pac-12 had, in fact, scooped up SMU and SDSU in the summer of 2022.
If the Pac-12 is unable to lure UNLV, then perhaps New Mexico could be a cheaper alternative. Football is weak, but basketball is strong. It’s a top-50 TV market. And the Lobos are due to collect a lower percentage of the Mountain West’s retention payout, so the math becomes easier. Am I crazy? — @cougsguy06
Not at all. We have considered the Lobos as an option for Pac-12 expansion, as well.
But remember, the Mountain West schools are not currently available and might not become available — so much of it, in our opinion, hinges on the outcome of the Pac-12’s antitrust lawsuit.
If there’s a settlement, or if the Mountain West loses in court, the cash promised by commissioner Gloria Nevarez to each member could be impacted. And at that point, who knows what might happen.
For the moment, let’s imagine a scenario in which the schools are available but UNLV does not receive, or accept, an invitation, New Mexico would make more sense than any school, with the possible exception of Air Force. (The service academies do well in the TV ratings game.)
Albuquerque is a solid market at the Group of Five level and, yes, the basketball program would certainly fit competitively in the rebuilt Pac-12.
All that said, the Hotline views Texas State as a better option than New Mexico and UNLV — a better option, in fact, than any school in the Mountain West.
Any insight about how the House lawsuit settlement will incorporate Title IX? — @RockDawg3
On numerous instances over the past three years, the Hotline has regretted our lack of legal expertise and turned, instead, to sources in the field of sports law.
And from what we gather, it’s pure conjecture at this point.
There is no guarantee Judge Claudia Wilken, of the Northern District of California, will approve the proposed House v. NCAA settlement in April. And if she does, will changes to the current version be necessary?
Challenges are inevitable, especially along the Title IX front.
The attorneys attempted to insulate the settlement by basing the revenue-sharing component on the athletes’ NIL, which is market-driven and, in theory, not subject to gender-equity law.
We are making no predictions but can offer advice: Pay attention to a federal lawsuit filed by Oregon’s varsity beach volleyball and club rowing teams against the school.
It’s all about Title IX and could have ramifications for the post-House landscape.
The Pac-12 is anxious about getting an eighth all-sports school. Why not flip the script? Why not invest in Gonzaga and help the Zags build a football program? They know how to win, have a passionate fan base and would keep the eighth team out west. — Matt H
That idea has surfaced periodically since the Zags agreed in October to join the rebuilt Pac-12, and our answer now is the same as then: Why would the university do it?
Football is a massive and unnecessary expense for Gonzaga.
Even if the Pac-12 helped fund the start-up costs, the annual resources vital to fielding a competitive FBS program would pull attention, energy and cash away from men’s and women’s basketball.
Unlike so many other schools not in the Power Four, the Zags have found a model that works. With so many challenges on the horizon, why make matters more complicated and more expensive?
The Pac-12 is much better off using that eighth slot on a school with an established football program that will join the conference at a reduced revenue share, creating more cash for the other members.
Is there any way Rich Rodriguez can get the West Virginia program to function at the level it once did from 2003-08, when he was the coach? — @PaulMountaineer
Rodriguez won 32 games in the final three seasons of his first West Virginia tenure (and finished in the top 10 of the AP poll on each occasion).
He has won everywhere, except Michigan, and there’s nothing preventing Rodriguez from being successful in Morgantown.
The Big 12 is all about opportunity, whether it’s Arizona State or Colorado or Brigham Young. The retooled conference is without traditional powers and therefore wide open every year.
In our view, the determining factor for RichRod 2.0 will be his energy level — is he really committed to winning or just thrilled with the paycheck — and the program’s ability to fully fund the roster.
It’s not just about maxing out the revenue-sharing piece (approximately $15 million for football). It’s also about true NIL from collectives that allows programs to exceed the cap created by the House settlement.
The need for collectives isn’t going away.
If the Mountaineers have the resources, Rodriguez should win. Again.
Is there a realistic chance that some players and coaches from the legacy Pac-12 schools’ basketball and Olympic sports programs may leave for a more regional conference at the end of the season? — @CelestialMosh
It’s not difficult to envision some athletes at Pac-12 legacy schools transferring to a conference that’s better situated. And by that we mean the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation.
The MPSF has been in operation for decades and is home to some of the best Olympic sports in the country, including the Stanford, USC and UCLA water polo programs, plus men’s gymnastics and men’s volleyball for various schools.
Essentially, it has provided a home for sports teams that were not sponsored by the Pac-12. Over time, membership has grown. The MPSF just added the Florida State and Texas beach volleyball programs, in fact.
We consider it a smart model for all sports, with the possible exception of football, in the 2030s.
Realignment simply doesn’t work for basketball, soccer, softball and the other Olympic sports. And everyone in college athletics knows it.
Will former Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff ever speak publicly about his tenure? — @jimmy0726
Yes, but only under specific circumstances.
Kliavkoff undoubtedly signed a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) that prevents him from publicly discussing the details of the failed media rights negotiations and subsequent breakup of the conference. Violating that agreement likely would result in a financial penalty connected to the terms of his settlement.
But the NDA isn’t forever. Maybe it lasts three years, or five year. We don’t know. Our hunch is that Kliavkoff eventually tells his side of the story … for a price.
He’ll sell everything to a media company interested in a documentary on the Pac-12’s collapse and willing to give him control over what content is published.
Kliavkoff’s current profile on LinkedIn describes him as “Creator, investor, operator.” (Previously, it indicated he was “traveling and fishing.”)
The Hotline spoke to Kliavkoff in the fall of 2023. It was off the record, so the details will remain private. But we’re fairly certain that he’s harboring little, if any guilt over the dissolution of the century-old conference.
Does the traditional National Signing Day really mean anything any more? — @MattRexroad
A day that used to mean everything now means almost nothing. The transfer portal and early-signing window in December dominate the roster-building process, to the point that schools only add a few players on the first Wednesday in February.
(There are exceptions when coaching changes occur after the December signing window, like Washington State, which hired Jimmy Rogers on Dec. 28.)
We miss waking up at 4 a.m. on NSD to begin reporting on letters-of-intent from East Coast recruits.
Now, the day passes with barely a mention.
Could that change? Probably not. Although the early-signing dates could be moved, we don’t see the window itself being eliminated.
Why do you use the royal “we” in your column, when The Hotline is just you? — @AdamWorcester2
Despite the occasional jokes about the Hotline’s supercomputer and our “crack research staff,” this is, in fact, a one-person, one-laptop operation.
And that one person is deeply uncomfortable typing “I” on a regular basis.
Put another way: There’s too much “me” in “I” for my liking.
Appreciate you noticing, and asking.
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