Lauren Boebert’s political future is on the line in today’s Colorado primary election

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert is competing with five other candidates to win Tuesday’s Republican primary in her newly adopted eastern Colorado district — a contest that could determine the firebrand conservative’s future in Congress.

Voting ends at 7 p.m., and initial results will be posted soon after. In recent weeks, signs have pointed to a likely Boebert victory, given the crowded field and her name recognition. Earlier this month, a poll showed her leading all other candidates by at 35 percentage points, but with a hefty share of voters undecided in the sprawling 4th Congressional District. It includes much of the Eastern Plains as well as south suburban Denver’s Douglas County.

There has also been an active race in the Democratic primary, but the road to the Nov. 5 general election will be an uphill climb for whoever wins that nomination in a congressional district that ranks as Colorado’s most Republican. The district, which runs from the Nebraska state line to the Oklahoma border and from the Front Range to the Kansas state line, shows a 20-point advantage among Republicans over Democratic registered voters, though more than 40% of its electorate is unaffiliated.

A Democrat hasn’t won in the 4th Congressional District since Betsy Markey did 16 years ago.

The race for the 4th District was upended last fall when incumbent Ken Buck said he wouldn’t run to defend his seat in 2024. He later resigned his seat, in March, resulting in a separate special election Tuesday to fill the seat for the rest of this term.

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That opened up the race to more than a dozen candidates on both sides of the political aisle — including Boebert, who in the waning days of 2023 said she would abandon a run for reelection in the 3rd Congressional District and try her chances in the more conservative 4th.

The two-term congresswoman was facing bleak prospects in her original district, which she won in 2020, due to the fundraising prowess of her Democratic opponent, Adam Frisch, who nearly beat her in 2022 despite the Western Slope-anchored district having a solid red tint. Her behavior at a performance of the Broadway touring musical “Beetlejuice” in Denver in September, which generated national headlines, prompted some prominent Colorado Republicans to walk away from her.

Boebert, who has the endorsement of soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, was immediately hit with the accusation of being a carpetbagger for her sudden district switch. But she dominated the fundraising game and was able to capitalize on her sky-high name recognition over her five remaining Republican foes.

Some of her primary opponents have long called the 4th District home, most notably Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg, who also served as a state lawmaker. State Rep. Richard Holtorf runs a cattle ranch near Akron and fellow House member Mike Lynch lives in Wellington.

Former radio host Deborah Flora placed her bets on the district’s most populous county, Douglas, where she has lived for a half-dozen years. Weld County business Peter Yu is the final Republican in the race.

On the Democratic side, repeat candidate Ike McCorkle faced off against political novices Trisha Calvarese and John Padora.

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Calvarese was also running in the district’s special election. Her Republican opponent was former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez, a Republican, who did not run in the primary for the next term.

McCorkle, who was trounced by Buck in 2020 and 2022, scored big money in the latest fundraising cycle. From April 1 to June 5, he collected more than $460,000 from contributors — topping Boebert in the money game by more than $100,000. He overshadowed his two Democratic opponents combined by a 3-to-1 margin in fundraising for the most recent reporting period.

McCorkle served 18 years in the U.S. Marine Corps before retiring in 2014. He has previously told The Denver Post that he would continue to run for the 4th District seat until he prevailed.

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