You can’t blame the 49ers for sitting out the first wave of NFL free agency.
The team’s new ownership-mandated era of austerity might not be a good look or sound policy for a team that is trying to win a Super Bowl, but it might have served the 49ers well in this particular case.
As money flew and players changed teams on Monday, San Francisco stood pat, letting good players leave without much of a fight.
I doubt they’ll regret it.
In the summer of 2016, the NBA — fresh off a new TV deal — saw a massive salary cap bump. Because the league and the players’ association declined to “smooth” over the cap, every team received roughly $24 million in spending power.
It was enough for the Warriors — winners of 73 games in the regular season before — to add Kevin Durant and ruin the league.
But before Durant posted that black-and-white photo of himself between some hedges and announced his “next chapter” on July 4, the rest of the NBA was spending money like it was going out of style, tossing massive deals at players in the moment and certainly in retrospect didn’t deserve that kind of cash.
We’re talking about Chandler Parsons signing a “max” deal with the Grizzlies, Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov signing with the Lakers for a combined $34 million a year, and Ian Mahinmi landing a four-year, $64 million contract.
(Quick: tell me one thing about Mahinmi.)
Of course, these teams spent big money on middling players because Durant was not available to them, but the NBA’s awful offseason in 2016 should have served as a cautionary tale of inflation and bad business.
I guess the NFL needed a reminder this past weekend.
The NFL’s salary cap increased roughly $24 million from last season, and some teams wanted their own Parsons, Mozgov, and Mahinmi on Monday.
Every Niners fan knows it’s patently ridiculous to pay Javon Kinlaw $15 million a season, but that’s what the Washington Commanders gave him for the next two years.
Jaylon Moore was a nice swing tackle for the 49ers, starting 12 games in four years and taking 827 snaps in total, with 271 coming last season. Somehow a person with a Pro Football Focus account took control of the Kansas City front office and Moore will now make $15 million a season for the Chiefs, as they signed him to a deal that’s effectively three-times larger than that of the 49ers’ starting right tackle — a player who has been consistently better than Moore — Colton McKivitiz.
The beat goes on: Former Lions cornerback Carlton Davis — a good but unspectacular player — signed a deal worth $20 million a season.
And former Steelers left tackle Dan Moore — who allowed a whopping 41 pressures last season — will be paid $30 million by the Titans next season.
Austerity — in this circumstance — was the right play for the Niners. Inflation is real and those deals will never look anything less than insane.
But when free agency reaches a second and third wave, the 49ers cannot be sitting on a pile of cash. It’s not like putting that cash in the stock market would be a good idea.
The Niners are going to let Deebo Samuel (trade), Maliek Collins (cut), Elijah Mitchell (signed with Chiefs), Moore (Chiefs), Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarious Ward, and likely Aaron Banks and perhaps even Dre Greenlaw walk out the door.
In many cases, that was the right football and business move. The Niners might not be rebuilding, but they need a refresh.
But if this team believes that its 11 draft picks are all that’s necessary to provide that refresh, any chance of a bounce-back season in 2025 will be torpedoed.
Second and third-wave free agents — even at a bit of a premium — can help this team. Players like defensive tackles Jeremiah Ledbetter and Poona Ford, running back Rico Dowdle, or linebacker Jamien Sherwood.
The Niners need solid players — starters in many cases — on reasonable contracts. The first wave of free agency has not provided such players.
But with the market frenzy already cooling, such players will be available.
The Niners cannot afford to not be in the game to land them.