Because of the stars, Dan Girard would give Deion Sanders the moon. And if you want to fight him on it, he’ll jab you with 100 million reasons why.
“In an ideal world, keep Deion happy as long as you can,” Girard told me late last week, laughing as he said it. “What’s the reality of that? Only (CU), Rick George, Deion and the university president can really figure that out.
“Look, they had a nice breakthrough year (in 2024). … It’s going to really be a question of certainly sustaining on-field success. But I think it’d be hard to argue (against) having a personality like (Deion) leading the helm, which is going to be the difference-maker for a program that kind of is on the fence.”
And by “fence,” of course, he means the cut for the College Football Super League — the hypothetical that’s wading into conversations right now the way a kaiju wades into Osaka Bay.
“You need reasons outside of just the sheer on-field (results) because they aren’t that brand that an Ohio State or even a USC (is),” he continued. “CU needs these other additional factors to maintain that relevancy, both regionally and really, more importantly, nationally.”
Girard is vice president for media rights and partnership services at Collegiate Sports Management Group (CSMG), a sports and entertainment consulting company with an emphasis on media rights, analytics, licensing and sponsorship sales.
With a client list that includes the Big Sky, the Summit and the Sun Belt, and with decades in the TV rights game, Girard and his peers know their stuff. Girard and his boss, CSMG COO Ray Katz, have worn a lot of hats over the years — soothsayers, bean-counters, ad men, idea men, stat men. They’ve got a pretty good idea of what’s next.
While the Broncos were busy hiring new coaches last week, the Rockies were winning (!) games that don’t count and the Avs were restocking their lines for the Cup, college football took its first official steps into chaos.
Sorry. More chaos.
Short version: To get Florida State and Clemson off their backs, the ACC a few days back agreed to lower departure costs/penalties for any member starting in 2030. Even though the conference’s rights package with ESPN runs through 2036.
Why 2030? On June 30 of that year, the Big Ten’s media deals expire. In June 2031, the Big 12’s deals are up. In June 2032, both the College Football Playoff and NCAA men’s basketball tournament TV contracts run out.
Remember how much fun all that uncertainty was from 2021 to 2023? Well, another free-for-all is coming. The big one is coming.
And by “big one,” we’re talking every other Power 4 conference pulling a Pac-12 — leaving its weakest brothers and sisters behind for, potentially, a national super league. For a circuit drawn up, NFL-style, by television executives with gold coins in their eyes at the behest of university presidents who see an enrollment cliff, and fewer enrollment dollars, looming. Alabama, Texas, Oregon and Rutgers, all under one roof! Well, except for the “Rutgers” part.
“I think the desire of really the power schools is, they don’t want to share the piece of the pie with those that, in their mind, are holding them back,” Girard said. “I think this traditional conference model, as currently constituted, is really on borrowed time. It’s just a question of who’s going to really be the one to pull that trigger.”
It’s also a question of who’s going to make the cut.
Which brings us back to CU, Coach Prime and why no long-term Sanders-Buffs extension should make BoCo a little nervous.
Katz and Girard did a deep dive on the numbers recently and came back with three key data points:
1. A super league would have no more than 40 schools, and probably closer to 32-36, so as not to dilute the quality of matchups or the “brands.”
2. A school in the super league would command anywhere from $92 million to $122 million in broadcast revenue per year. (Context: The Big 12 reportedly will distribute $22 million in rights revenues to CU in ’24-25, with that number jumping to $31.7 million annually for ’25-26 through ’30-31.)
3. Schools that don’t make the “Super 40” — and you’re talking historical names such as Syracuse, Arizona, Minnesota, Kansas, etc. — would likely bring in annual broadcast revenues of $10 million to $15 million, or roughly half what CU is making now.
It almost goes without saying, but a school with Deion Sanders as its football coach has a heck of a lot better chance of making that “Super 40” than a program that doesn’t.
“I think what (the Buffs) need to do is, spend a good amount of money on Deion, on name, image, likeness,” Katz said. “Basketball’s cute and adorable, but I wouldn’t even put much money into that. And the other thing is, they’ve got to continue to do publicity, social posts, be visible in New York, be visible in the network world, so to speak. And really leverage the fact that they’re in a top-20 media market. That holds a lot more water than you realize.”
CU’s TV ratings were down in 2024 compared to 2023, but the numbers were still strong relative to their Power 4 peers. The Alamo Bowl on ABC was the most-watched postseason game (8.0 million viewers), per SportsMediaWatch.com, that wasn’t a part of the CFP.
According to the site, every Buffs game last fall ranked among the top 10 in ratings nationally during that given week. Which is why Girard and Katz would take the Buffs — Deion’s Buffs, at any rate — in a college football Super 40 over, say, the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Sea of Red, sellouts and Dr. Tom be darned.
“I don’t know if there’s anyone in this world who’s like Deion,” Girard said. “Is this just a flash in the pan? I think that’s the major question mark — if, and when, he does move on, does the attention that accompanies it also move on as well? Because a school such as Nebraska, that has a very ardent fan base, that has what you’re asking for in terms of benchmarks to be considered (for a super league), maybe (networks) would consider it, but the (Huskers) also don’t have the recent history on the field to justify inclusion into a field like that …”
“It’s a very avid, limited fan base,” Katz interjected. “It’s a local fan base that nationally just has not had that relevancy in quite a while. And CU is getting that right now. And it’s fair to say they’re getting it because they have an individual leading the charge who warrants and demands that attention.”
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