BOULDER — Ralphie’s path to the College Football Playoff? Turn left at Texas Tech’s secondary, take a right past Isaac Wilson, do a U-turn at Arrowhead and pump the brakes on Ollie Gordon.
“They do (have a way). They absolutely do,” Fox Sports college football analyst Geoff Schwartz told me Thursday. “Because the schedule dictates a chance to win all these (November) games.”
The Red Raiders can’t defend the pass. Utah can’t score. Kansas and Oklahoma State can’t give a darn.
If there’s another loss in there, I sure as heck couldn’t find it. So I called Schwartz. He couldn’t peg one either.
“There really is only one (key) to slowing CU down right now,” the former Oregon and NFL lineman stressed. “It’s being able to hit (Shedeur) Sanders and sort of affect the passing game, right? And no one on the schedule can do that.”
Nope. And probably not Tech (6-3, 4-2 Big 12), which hosts Deion Sanders and his Buffs (6-2, 4-1) on Saturday afternoon.
The Red Raiders head into the weekend ranked last in the Big 12 in sacks per game (1.22), last in passing yards allowed per game (307.2) and last in passing touchdowns allowed (20). If Kansas State was a tough matchup, on paper, Tech sets up as an ideal one for Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and one of the nation’s fastest and most fearless passing attacks.
“(They) definitely (need to) win out,” CBS college bracketologist and analyst Jerry Palm messaged me. “Not only do I think 9-3 won’t get in, but there could be multiple 10-2 teams left out (of the CFP). CU would probably be one of them. I don’t think this is realistically an at-large team. No playoff contenders on their schedule. No noteworthy wins. Lost to arguably the two best teams they played.”
Undaunted, I reached out to some national college football voices earlier this week to take their temperatures on CU’s CFP scenarios the rest of the way. They all said largely the same four things:
1. Thanks to losses against Nebraska and Kansas State, CU doesn’t have much hope as an at-large, even as one with a 10-2 record;
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2. That said, a 4-0 mark in November is totally plausible with this schedule;
3. The right 4-0, or even 3-1, puts the Buffs in the Big 12 championship game;
4. And with all due (but mostly limited) respect to BYU (8-0 overall, 5-0 Big 12), would you bet against Coach Prime right now in a winner-take-all game at Jerry World next month?
“They’d have to win out and take the Big 12 Championship,” longtime CollegeFootballNews.com publisher Pete Fiutak told me. “But not playing BYU or Iowa State is a problem. With that said, if they beat Texas Tech this weekend, Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma State are all winnable.
“(A) 10-2 (mark) at least gets the Buffs in the discussion, but the problem will be the lack of one HUGE win the (selection) committee could love. At the moment, Cincinnati and CSU are the only sure-bowl teams the Buffs have beaten.”
As amusing as it is to think of CU fans rooting for the Rams (6-3) to win out the rest of the way, it’s hard to see CSU turning many committee members’ heads — unless it went on to upset Boise State in the Mountain West title game.
Every computer rankings system sort of hates the Rams right now, the way the algorithms sort of hate every Mountain West team that isn’t Boise or UNLV. (CSU goes into its pre-Bronze Boot bye week ranked 102nd nationally in ESPN.com’s Football Power Index and 84th in the Massey Ratings.)
“The committee adores big, splashy victories they can point to,” Fiutak continued. “(The Buffs are) not going to have a win over a CFP top 25 team, even if they win out.
“(Getting) into the Big 12 Championship is the key. Then the puck is on Prime’s stick — win and get in.”
So memorize those Big 12 tiebreakers, kids. At least the first one’s easy. And it applies to two-team and multiple-team ties as well: head-to-head records.
CU won’t play BYU (5-0 in Big 12 play), Iowa State (4-1), Arizona State (3-2) or West Virginia (3-2) during the regular season. The Buffs lost at home to Kansas State (5-2) and beat Cincinnati (3-2) at Folsom.
And that whole head-to-head thing? It’s also why Tech looms so large this weekend.
Win and get in, baby.
“I thought they’d win six games. If they finish 10-2 and Iowa State loses to anybody, they’re in the Big 12 Championship game,” Schwartz said.
“Could (the Buffs) beat BYU? I don’t know. But they’re in the game. And if you’re in the game, you’ve got a chance to win it.”
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