Like a 1911 Model T, the Broncos’ run game has three gears: first, second and reverse. Surely, Sean Payton is as sick of this shift as the rest of us.
“I would say there’s some looks that we have to be better at, relative to when we’re running a certain play into some tough looks, where now you don’t really have the leverage,” Payton, the Broncos’ second-year coach, said Monday when asked about his mercurial — to put it kindly — rushing game right now. “We have to do a better job as coaches, starting with me, and (with) having solutions when the looks aren’t what you’re practicing.”
At 9-5 with a rookie quarterback, a winning mix of kids and journeymen, and salary-cap purgatory, this season is already found money — one sack-happy, overachieving honeymoon. But after Christmas, when the calendar turns, the big boys in the NFL swap the Cinderella slippers for MMA gloves.
If the playoff fates ship you to Pittsburgh or Buffalo in the middle of January, the only sure way to avoid getting buried in the snow is a hot hand at tailback.
Alas, the best the Broncos could manage against the Colts was a lukewarm pinkie (Jaleel McLaughlin’s 21 rushing yards), a tepid thumb (Javonte Williams’ 15 rush yards) and a middle finger in the face of a golden opportunity.
The Colts galloped into Empower Field just begging to be run outta Dodge. Indianapolis hit Week 15 with a limp, ranked dead last in the circuit when it comes to explosive rush plays — runs of 10 yards or more — surrendered, with 58, or about 4.5 big chunks per game.
The Broncos managed two: McLaughlin for 12 and Bo Nix, the hosts’ leading rusher on the day (23 yards), for 16. The Colts came in giving up 147 yards per game on the ground, worst in the AFC. Denver “gashed” them for about half of that.
“Overall, I think it’s an area that as we — here we are, with three weeks left in the season, we have to find more consistency there,” Payton added.
He’s running out of time. The Broncos are 7-2 when running for at least 100 yards as a team this season. They’re 2-3 otherwise.
As temperatures drop, so do passes. Let’s not discount the giddy fact that we’re talking playoff football in mid-December with a straight face. But playoff football is lunchpail football, frozen tundra football, the way the good Lord intended.
From 2000 to ’15, the Broncos played in 15 postseason contests, winning seven. They went 6-4 when putting up 95 rush yards or more as a team, 1-4 otherwise. They were 6-2 when out-rushing the opposition, 1-6 when they didn’t.
Since 1984, only two Broncos QBs have won a postseason contest in a postseason game in which Denver didn’t also run for at least 95 yards as a team. Spoiler alert: They’re the two most iconic, usual suspects — John Elway and Peyton Manning. That’s it.
McLaughlin, Williams and Audric Estime just put up 48 yards on 18 totes, combined, against the NFL’s biggest stiffs at defending the run. Red flags have been blissfully hard to find with this team, and thank goodness. But that sure is one of ’em.
As any CU Buffs fan can tell you, a run game with no giddy-up often leads to a QB1 who thinks he has to play hero ball, regardless of down or distance. It’s probably no coincidence that Nix has been picked off five times over his last two games. Over his previous 10 tilts, he’d thrown just two total. Regression is a fickle, cruel mistress, but she’s coming on faster than usual. And at a less-than-ideal time on the fight card.
Young No. 10’s passed almost every test the fates — and Payton — have chucked in front of him. But, bless him, he’ll need help in L.A. on Thursday night. And help in chilly Cincy. And for Kansas City after New Year’s — and whatever fresh Hades awaits after that.
“There’s a maturity and a moxie about him which I love,” Payton reflected. “I think it’s contagious to the team. When you have that at the quarterback position, your team knows you’re in every game. When you don’t have it, it’s pretty difficult, because deep down in their belly, they know that’s not the case.”
Moxie and maturity will do a lot of the legwork, especially for a young signal-caller. Just not all of it.
When The Patrick Mahomes Dynasty gets dissected, two things about the AFC’s reigning bullies don’t get brought up nearly enough. One is the defensive combo of coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and future Hall of Fame tackle Chris Jones. The other is Kansas City’s run game, the Andy Reid curveball that’s managed to set up so many of Mahomes’ wipeout sliders.
The Chiefs are 15-3 in playoff games since Mahomes took the reins. Of those, they’re 13-2 when rushing for at least 95 yards in the postseason and 2-3 when they don’t. In January, with money on the line, the hot hand in the run game can’t be the one that’s handing off.
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