BOULDER — The road runs through Ralphie. Deion Sanders’ Buffs get Kansas State at home in three weeks. Over a 15-day span in late November, they’ll host Utah and Oklahoma State.
The Big 12’s path to the College Football Playoff turns left off the turnpike and right into the sure hands of Travis Hunter.
“The good news for CU is, you do have the power brokers largely at home,” Fox Sports analyst and former NFL quarterback Brock Huard told me before the Buffs kicked off with Baylor in a homecoming tussle at Folsom Field on Saturday night. “But Prime will also get tested by some of the most long-tenured and mature programs and cultures in all of college football.”
At worst, Coach Prime is going to have a say in who wins a league that looks high in parity and low in bluebloods. Heck, if enough stars align, Sanders might even find himself riding shotgun on the CFP train.
“If (Sanders) thought — rightfully so — (that) North Dakota State played a selfless, physical, tough brand of football,” Huard said, “just wait ’til (Oklahoma State coach Mike) Gundy, (Utah coach Kyle) Whittingham and (K-State coach Chris) Klieman roll into Boulder with the same Bison culture, but bigger, faster and stronger personnel.”
Counter: CU scored almost as many points against the Utes last year (17) with Ryan Staub at QB1 as Gundy’s Pokes did Saturday in Stillwater.
The music’s barely started, and already this new-look Big 12 is getting all kinds of funky. Arizona State was on a 3-0 heater before the Sun Devils hit a wall at Texas Tech. KU dropped its third straight and slipped to 1-3. Cincinnati, which was supposed to kick rocks, kicked the snot out of Houston and moved to 3-1.
It’s as if the Big Ten West died and the Big 12 took its place as the Football Bowl Subdivision’s wackiest league of middleweights. Anybody could finish second. Anybody could finish 11th. Flip a coin and hold on tight.
“Let me tell you, what I hear from my friends who I’ve known over the years, the athletic directors, there’s more excitement in that conference now than there’s been in years,” former Big 12 and Big Eight commissioner Chuck Neinas told me a few months back. “Because they’ve been working together, amazingly — they’ve been really all-in there, they’re all a part of the team. And the joke is, ‘Everyone has a chance to win in football now because Oklahoma is leaving, and people now have a chance to talk in the meetings because Texas is leaving.’
“CU, in football — I’ll tell you what, with the 12-team playoff, there’s a lot of excitement. But I think they’ll be very competitive (there).”
Evil AI agrees. In ESPN’s Football Power Index ratings as of early Saturday, zero Big 12 teams ranked among the top 15. (The SEC had eight; the Big Ten had four.) But 14 of 16 members of the loop took up spots 16-57 on the FPI, with CU 12th among those league entries at No. 55.
“The Big 12 may not own the best properties on the Monopoly board,” Huard said, “but they are like the four railroads, with very sustainable and reliable assets. And just like the four pieces on the property board, it’s hard to argue which is best.”
The FPI says it’s K-State (No. 16); then UCF (No. 17), which CU visits next weekend; then Okie State (No. 20); and Utah (No. 24), in that order. Huard’s partial toward the Utes, Cowboys, Wildcats and Iowa State (No. 45).
“There’s a case to be made for all four,” Huard continued, “and then the middle class of the conference is not that far behind.”
And if the Buffs want to elevate themselves above that middle class, a good start to league play, historically, would go a heck of a long way.
Since 2003, CU’s played 20 non-pandemic seasons. In 14 of them, the Buffs opened league play 0-2. Only one of those teams — the 2004 CU squad with Joel Klatt and Bobby Purify in the backfield — rallied to make the postseason; the other 13 missed the boat.
The three teams with a 1-1 start in conference play also missed a bowl, while the three with 2-0 marks to open league play all reached the postseason. As did Karl Dorrell’s 2020 pandemic Buffs.
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“I think the Big 12 is a better (fit) for CU. I think it will show in recruiting and hopefully in the win column,” former Buffs linebacker Josh Hartigan, a second-team All-Big 12 selection in 2010, CU’s last season in the league before this one, wrote me via email.
“Transitions can always be a challenge. But as long as the team has bought in and is ready to compete, the conference they play in shouldn’t matter. Winning is what ultimately is going to help CU maintain its status as a Power 4 school.”
Nobody wins a Big 12 title in late September. The trick for the next fortnight is not fumbling away your shot at one. The road runs through Ralphie. In this league? Anything and everything is on the table.
“Buckle up,” Huard said. “Literally.”
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