The Jacksonville Jaguars enter 2026 as one of the NFL’s most polarizing Super Bowl contenders.
Trevor Lawrence may make you believe their 13-win breakthrough can survive the dubiousness surrounding it.
CBS Sports’ Garrett Podell named Lawrence one of the NFL’s underrated quarterbacks entering 2026.
He mentioned the dramatic change that followed his early adjustment period in Coen’s offense in 2025.
Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr included Jacksonville among 14 teams capable of winning Super Bowl LXI, though he wrote that the Jaguars made him “very suspicious.”
Orr outlined two possible paths: Jacksonville could regress after finishing second in the NFL in takeaways, or Liam Coen could oversee another offensive evolution that pushes Lawrence higher.
Yahoo Sports’ Frank Schwab went the skeptic route by ranking the Jaguars No. 16 in its July power rankings despite their 13-4 finish.
He pointed to Jacksonville’s 5-2 record in one-score games, favorable turnover margin and quiet offseason as reasons to expect regression.
Additionally, betting and prediction markets have leaned toward skepticism.
Jacksonville’s win total fell from 9.5 to 8.5, while its Super Bowl odds slipped from +2200 to +3000, and as of July 21, Kalshi gave the Jaguars about a 3% chance to win Super Bowl LXI, with Polymarket placing them at roughly 2.6%.
Lawrence’s Finish Changed Jacksonville’s Outlook
CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 14: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars makes adjustments before the play in the second half of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on September 14, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Lawrence spent the first half of 2025 recovering from shoulder surgery and learning a new system.
The Jaguars started 5-4 while he produced 10 passing touchdowns, four rushing scores and seven interceptions.
Everything changed over the final eight games.
Lawrence threw 19 touchdown passes, added five rushing scores and helped Jacksonville finish the regular season on an 8-0 run.
His 24 total touchdowns during that stretch led the NFL, according to CBS Sports, while the Jaguars surged to 13-4 and secured the AFC South title.
His final six games carried historical significance.
Lawrence accounted for 19 touchdowns with one turnover, becoming the third player in NFL history to reach at least 19 total scores with no more than one turnover over the final six games of a season.
The other two were Drew Brees in 2019 and Aaron Rodgers during his 2020 MVP season.
Lawrence completed the year with 4,007 passing yards, 29 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions.
He also rushed for nine touchdowns, giving him a franchise-record 38 total scores and a fifth-place finish in Associated Press NFL MVP voting.
Year 2 With Coen Could Settle the Suspicion
GettyTrevor Lawrence of the Jaguars with head coach Liam Coen
Coen said Lawrence’s understanding of the offense improved dramatically as the season progressed.
The quarterback moved beyond learning formations and motions and began changing plays at the line of scrimmage with greater control.
“Now you’ve got to take that next step of ownership,” Coen said in February.
Lawrence will enter his second season in the same offense healthy, a meaningful change from an offseason spent rehabilitating his shoulder and learning new footwork.
He said in April that the continuity would allow him to focus on details rather than starting over with another system.
CBS Sports projected that greater familiarity could help Lawrence establish himself as a top-10 quarterback.
But if the Jaguars struggle to reproduce a defense-driven turnover rate that fueled their rise last season, their offense will feel the burden.
Lawrence will have to show up the final two months to carry it.
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