Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes insists he is healthy, but one troubling statistic this year, made clear in his latest start, is raising questions about whether something is wrong with the 24-year-old right-hander.
Skenes lasted only five innings and 65 pitches against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, and one number from the outing illustrates just how dramatically something has changed for one of baseball’s most overpowering pitchers.
But his start against Miami was only the latest in an alarming season-long trend. Skenes threw 404 fastballs at 99 mph or higher during his 2024 rookie season and 223 more during his Cy Young-winning follow-up in 2025. This year, through Tuesday’s start in Miami, he has thrown only three at 99 mph or above, according to a stat posted by Underdog MLB Thursday morning.
Skenes Hits New Low Against the Marlins
Skenes averaged a career-low 95.7 mph on his fastball Tuesday in Miami and did not throw a single pitch harder than 97 mph, according to ESPN’s report on the start. He induced just four whiffs on 34 swings, a 12% rate that stood as the lowest single-game mark of his career.
That outing was also his lowest pitch total since a 64-pitch start against the Tampa Bay Rays in April, when a lengthy weather delay cut things short, ESPN noted. This time, Pirates manager Don Kelly pulled Skenes before the sixth inning by choice.
“It wasn’t injury-related,” Kelly said, according to ESPN, adding that he lifted the right-hander because he “thought it gave us the best chance to win.”
Skenes said he didn’t argue the decision.
“If I were the manager, I’d probably do it too,” he said, as quoted by ESPN. “[Kelly] walked me through everything, and it made sense. I wish I could have gone more, but it kinda is what it is.”
Neither Skenes nor Kelly directly addressed why the 24-year-old former No. 1 overall draft pick’s velocity keeps dropping, though Skenes pointed to changes in his routine and heavier pitch “volume” within shorter outings.
“I know the innings total isn’t super high right now,” Skenes said, according to ESPN. “I think I’ve probably had more 30- to 35-pitch innings this year than I have probably in the last two years combined, so that doesn’t help either.”
Paul Skenes’ Numbers Tell the Story This Season
The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has fallen to 3-4 with a 5.79 ERA over his last nine starts, a stark reversal for a pitcher who posted a 1.96 ERA as a 2024 rookie and a 1.97 ERA during last year’s Cy Young campaign. His average fastball has sunk from 98.8 mph in 2024 to 98.1 mph in 2025 to 96.8 mph this season, according to ESPN numbers.
Analysts have also flagged reduced movement on Skenes’ changeup and splitter as a factor, not just the diminished fastball, according to a breakdown from Sporting News.
Pirates GM Ben Cherington has called the dip fairly ordinary for starting pitchers over a long season, insisting nothing in Skenes’ medical reports points to a physical issue, according to a report from Bucs Dugout.
At 58-63 and last in the NL Central with 42 games remaining, the Pirates need vintage Skenes back to have any real shot at a wild-card berth. Whether his diminished velocity represents a permanent recalibration or an off year will go a long way toward deciding how the rest of Pittsburgh’s season, and Skenes’ 2026, ultimately plays out.
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