Nine weeks into the season, Caleb Williams is still the best quarterback prospect the Bears have ever had.
But it’s never too early to wonder what’s going on with an inconsistent Bears quarterback. It’s understood that the developmental arc of a rookie quarterback will have some dips. But in losses to the Commanders and Cardinals the past two weeks following an impressive three-game stretch, Williams looks more like a different quarterback than the same quarterback having a bad day. Around these parts, that’s always a cause for concern.
It’s been a curious downturn for Williams. In the Bears’ three-game winning streak against the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars, Williams was one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL — a 122.8 passer rating (second), 75.1% completion rate (third), 229 yards per game (16th) and 8.5 yards per attempt (fifth). But in two games since the bye, he’s been one of the worst — a 65.4 passer rating (32nd), 49.2% completion rate (33rd), 174 yards per game (31st) and 5.4 yards per completion (33rd).
So even though Williams is a better quarterback than Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields, on paper (if not on the field) he finds himself in a similar boat right now. His best success is against bad defenses (the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars rank 24th, 31st and 32nd in the NFL in passer rating allowed). He’s taking too many sacks (nine in the last two games, 29 for the season). And he can’t connect with the very connectable DJ Moore — similar to questions about Trubisky’s disappearing chemistry with Allen Robinson, or Fields with Darnell Mooney.
By the eye test, Williams looks more like yet another Bears quarterback slowly being consumed by a dysfunctional offense than a rookie having the typical growing pains. But offensive coordinator Shane Waldron said it’s just part of the process.
“I think for Caleb, every week is going to be a new set of circumstances that he’s dealing with,” Waldron said. “Different defensive structures. Different blitz patterns. All the things play out.
“So for him, each week just continue to work playing with clean eyes, clean feet, playing fast in the pocket. It’s something that — looking through all the different young quarterbacks — there have been some ups and downs as the process has taken place.
“And the thing that gives me all the confidence in the world in Caleb is his dedication to his craft — the way he comes in to work every single day. So we’ll keep working and coaching him and the guys surrounding him, working their butts off to get this thing going … in a consistent manner.”
No Bears quarterback development predicament is complete without a pass protection issue. Williams has been sacked 29 times — the Bears rank 30th in the NFL in sacks per pass play.
After Williams was sacked seven times against the Texans in Week 2, the Bears seemed to figure it out — Williams was sacked just four times for 13 yards in lost yardage in victories over the Panthers and Jaguars. But he’s been sacked nine times for 61 yards in losses against the Commanders and Cardinals.
As Waldron noted, pass protection is a team game — the line, the running backs, the quarterback working in concert. The Bears’ banged-up offensive line appears to be the biggest culprit recently. But regardless of the culpability, Williams seems to be in harm’s way more often than he was earlier in the season, due for a big hit sooner rather than later. That’s a problem.
“As an offense, the high number of sacks is something we’ve really started to home in on,” Waldron said. “We’ve talked about [it] every week, but as they accumulate, that’s a big goal of our’s to reduce that number.”
And perhaps most disappointing is that the receiving corps that was supposed to make Williams’ job easier hasn’t really provided that cushion. When Fields was a rookie in his eighth start, he was scrambling to find Mooney, Kmet, Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd. But Williams is scrambling without being able to find Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze or Kmet open. That’s a problem, too.
Waldron, in fact, has been juggling personnel issues all season — Kmet playing 28 snaps against the Titans; the fourth-and-goal at the 1 against the Colts, the handoff to center Doug Kramer against the Commanders; now the disconnect between Williams and Moore, plus Kmet getting zero targets on 63 snaps against the Cardinals.
Protection, support, scheme. There’s always something.
“Each play you could say it’s one or the other depending on the play. That’s why it’s such a unique game,” Waldron said. “You’ve got 11 guys that have their responsibilities on every down and if everyone can execute their assignment every single play, we know we have a great chance for Caleb — the snap, getting up there, playing fast.
“That’s something he’s been committed to do and [he’s] working on and getting better. I know there’s gonna be ups and downs — that’s part of the process. But that confidence, that belief he has in himself and that his teammates have in him has been unwavering.”
That’s great. But there’s an old saying around here, applicable to anyone who steps into the building: You have to change Halas Hall before Halas Hall changes you. Caleb Williams entered as the quarterback to do that. And just eight games into his Bears career, there is plenty of time for that to happen. But the sooner the better. It gets late around here early.