Would you trust a groundhog to predict the weather? Every year on Feb. 2, millions of Americans look to a furry forecaster to determine whether winter will linger or if an early spring is on the way.
While it’s a cherished tradition to watch if a groundhog sees his shadow or not, meteorologists are quick to point out that a groundhog’s forecast isn’t exactly reliable.
Punxsutawney Phil — arguably the most famous groundhog from Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania — has been accurate only 30% of the time over the past decade, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Phil got it right last year. He predicted an early spring — and the country saw above-average temperatures in February and March.
While the festivities are all in good fun, meteorologists said they rely on data — not groundhogs — to predict the weather.
“We’re an information-driven society, and we have access to a variety of forecasts based on science, statistical analysis and historical patterns,” said Karin Gleason, monitoring section chief at the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “Groundhog Day is just a premise based on whether or not a shadow is seen in a specific location.”
As for this year, the National Weather Service said it’s a toss-up whether Illinois will see an early spring. The weather service said there is no strong temperature signal for February through April, meaning there are equal chances for above- and below-normal temperatures. However, precipitation is expected to be above normal for the upcoming months.
“The overall pattern suggests a wetter-than-average end to winter and start to spring,” said Rafal Ogorek, a meteorologist with the weather service. “Depending on the temperature, that could mean more rain or snow than usual.”
The Farmers’ Almanac prediction, which is based on factors like sunspot activity, lunar cycles and atmospheric patterns, also calls for a stormy start to spring in the Midwest. Editor Sandi Duncan said the region will see a classic spring pattern, with plenty of showers and a cool, damp start to the season.
“It’s funny that we still turn to a groundhog for the weather,” Duncan said. “We appreciate the tradition, but when it comes to forecasts, we’ll stick with our own predictions.”
In Chicago, neither the Lincoln Park Zoo nor the Brookfield Zoo has groundhogs. Still, they are commonly found in the area once they emerge from hibernation, typically around March, according to Liza Lehrer, assistant director of the Urban Wildlife Institute at Lincoln Park Zoo.
But Lehrer didn’t blame the groundhog, pointing out a flaw in the tradition.
“There’s some bias since this happens at 7 a.m. when the sun isn’t usually out,” she said. “This makes it hard to see his shadow.”
Still, that won’t stop celebrations from unfolding across the country, including in northwest suburban Woodstock, where the 1993 classic “Groundhog Day” movie was filmed. Each year, a crowd gathers in the town square to watch Woodstock Willie make his prediction.
This year’s festivities include the town’s first 5K run through scenes from the movie and a visit from actor Stephen Tobolowsky, who played Ned Ryerson in the film. The local production company, Theater 121, will also stage “Groundhog Day The Musical” at the Woodstock Opera House for the first time.
The main event — Woodstock Willie’s forecast — will take place at 7 a.m. Sunday in the town square.
Sunday’s weather is expected to be partly sunny, with a high near 49 degrees, according to the weather service. So, buckle up and head to Woodstock to see what Willie has to say about this year’s winter — there’s a chance he might see his shadow.