The paths have not intersected, but they are close — much closer than anyone could have reasonably expected after just five games.
Utah, picked first in the Big 12 preseason media poll, is wobbling.
Brigham Young, picked 13th, is surging.
Both teams had two weeks to prepare for their challenges this weekend, which come courtesy of the Arizona schools.
By the close of business Saturday night, the transformation could be complete with BYU confirmed as the contender and Utah exposed as the pretender.
It’s a staggering outcome to consider, but we aren’t there just yet.
Nor are the oddsmakers.
To gain clarity on the Utes and Cougars relative to each other, the Hotline reached out to Kenny White, who has been setting odds in Las Vegas for three decades and runs KennyWhiteSports.com.
Specifically, we asked White to provide a betting line on the Holy War (Nov. 9) based on current analytics, both with and without Utah quarterback Cam Rising in the lineup.
How far have the one-loss Utes drifted from their expected course?
How convincing have the Cougars been in compiling an undefeated record?
White’s early line on the game:
— Without Rising, the Utes would be favored by four points (Over/Under: 42).
— With Rising, the Utes would be favored by seven points (Over/Under: 45).
Despite the appearance of decline in Salt Lake City and the indisputable upturn in Provo, the Utes would be favored regardless.
Rising’s availability alters the line by a field goal.
(Of note: Utah has been favored in the past five matchups, which date back to the 2016 season.)
Notably, that Over/Under is low, and with good reason: The teams are better defensively than they are offensively.
The Cougars are No. 9 nationally in yards-per-play allowed (4.37) while the Utes are No. 20 in the same category (4.65).
The Utes are 15th nationally in points allowed (15 per game) while the Cougars are just two spots lower (15.8 ppg).
The Utes are fourth in third-down conversion defense, while the Cougars are 33rd.
The Cougars are 18th in preventing touchdowns in the Red Zone while the Utes are 52nd.
In all the key statistical categories, the two defenses are either solid or absolute granite.
Will White’s betting line for the Holy War hold up over the next month?
The Utes have a difficult matchup on Friday evening at Arizona State (4-1), followed by a home date with floundering TCU (3-3) and a trip to Houston (2-4).
They should be 6-2, at worst, when boarding the bus to Provo.
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Following its home date with Arizona (3-2) on Saturday afternoon, Brigham Young hosts struggling Oklahoma State (3-3), then visits UCF (3-2), which recently was beaten decisively at home by Colorado.
If the Cougars sweep, they would enter the Holy War with a top-10 ranking.
More likely, in our view, they will lose one of the three and take a 7-1 record into the rivalry game.
(Both Utah and BYU have a bye the week before tangling in LaVell Edwards Stadium, so there is no competitive advantage for either.)
Put another way: The Holy War should carry Big 12 championship and College Football Playoff stakes for both combatants.
No team with two conference losses in early November will be eliminated from the race for a berth in the Big 12 title game, where victory results in an automatic bid to the CFP.
Long before the season’s first kickoff, we expected the Holy War to have massive consequences for the Utes.
The surprise is that the stakes could be equivalent for the Cougars.
It’s a delicious possibility, looming four short weeks away.
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