The kids in the GTW offices want the same thing at New Year’s that Santa didn’t bring us for Christmas: Shooters to play with Nikola Jokic. Several, now that you mention it.
And while we dig the idea of a trade for Bulls sharpshooter Zach LaVine, he also only solves, theoretically, about half of this team’s problems out on the perimeter right now.
Because it’s not just that the Nuggets don’t shoot 3s and don’t care to. It’s that other NBA offenses still do — and Denver has no earthly clue how to stop them once it starts raining triples left and right.
Shocker: The Nuggets and Jokic still need 3-and-D guys. Instead of pluggers such as Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope making a difference for 94 feet, one way or another, Denver’s current rotation gets treys sometimes from Christian Braun and defensive stops on occasion from Julian Strawther.
A starting lineup with Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. needs at least two lockdown defenders with them at any given time, or else it’s one long throwback to the Paul Westhead Era, and everybody already knows how that story ends. You sure as heck won’t win many playoff series having to outscore people four games out of seven.
What’s maddening is that the Nuggets have already shown us how this can work, and is supposed to work, and worked to clinical, glorious precision. Aaron Gordon, when healthy, is one of those 94-feet guys, but he’s banged up. Jokic is one of the greatest offensive centers in NBA history and the best passing big man to ever play the game. But as he’s not a rim protector, it’s best to compliment the Joker with wing protectors and perimeter stoppers, or else the layup line could crank up at any minute. You cut off the supply before it ever gets to the paint.
Braun was supposed to supplant KCP on that front, but the results so far have been … mixed. While the ex-Kansas Jayhawks star is making statistical strides offensively, Basketball-Reference.com pegs the ex-Kansas Jayhawk’s Defensive Rating — points allowed per 100 possessions — at 115, the highest clip (and higher is worse, remember) since his rookie season.
Nuggets’ perimeter defense — D
To put it another way, did you see the clinic Cleveland dropped on the Nuggets at Ball Arena on Friday night? The Cavs had 80 points by halftime and finished with 23 treys on 48 attempts.
Denver went into the weekend averaging 11.6 3-pointers per game, which is well within range of its pace last season (11.5 makes) and during its title year (11.7). What’s changed, and not for the better, is the amount of opponent daggers from long range. Two seasons ago, the Nuggets gave up 11.2 treys per game; last season, it was 11.1, No. 2 in the league. Before the Cavs game, which was ugly enough, that total had zipped up to 13.8 treys allowed per tilt. On a net basis, that’s a deficit of 2.2 3-pointers every night, or a difference of roughly seven points per opponent. Miss KCP yet?
It’s just math. Three is greater than two. Meanwhile, on the other end, the lack of stops forces Jokic to carry more of the weight, to be more perfect and efficient offensively to try and keep up. No wonder the big guy’s slowly losing his cool.
LaVine’s an amazing catch-and-shoot marksman and spot-up shooter, the kind of weapon Jokic knows how to use and elevate. But Basketball-Reference.com also pegs him with a 119 Defensive Rating, after posting a career-worst 118 the winter before. On paper, the Bulls guard ticks a lot of boxes. Just not all of them.
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