You can’t spell “pain” without AI, and nobody hurts on the Rockies quite like the computers.
Dick Monfort’s annual preseason vow is as much a part of winter along the Front Range as the Western Stock Show and leaving your holiday lights up through late January. To the baseball guys in the Grading The Week offices, Monfort’s like Punxsutawney Phil, only for the MLB Draft Lottery. Whatever record the Rockies owner projects for the upcoming spring, peg his team to land below that by about 18 games.
2020: Monfort promised 94 wins. The Rockies did land those 94 victories — but not until September 15, 2021. Colorado won 26 during a pandemic-shortened ’20 campaign, then opened the next season with a 68-78 mark through its first 146 contests.
2023: Monfort said he thought his Rox could play “.500 ball.” Which they did — for exactly four games. On April 3 at the Dodgers, the Purple slipped to 2-3, then promptly dropped 14 of their next 18. Colorado went on to lose a franchise-record 103 games.
So the baseball wonks were more than a little disappointed to hear Monfort play it safe last month in Greeley, vowing only that your ’25 Rox will be young while boasting “the best defense, maybe in the history of the game.”
First, the ’69 Orioles (Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger, Davey Johnson) would like a word. Followed by the ’01 Mariners (John Olerud, David Bell, Bret Boone). Oh, and the ’85 Cardinals (Ozzie Smith, Terry Pendleton).
Second, points for modesty, Dick. But the machines ain’t buying it — unless they’re washing machines.
Rockies preseason projections — D
In honor of the first weekend of Cactus League play, Team GTW decided to browse the leading computer MLB win-loss projection models for a taste of what’s to come. Then we went back to watching the U.S. and Canada beat each other up on the ice, because the win-loss projections are still one big migraine just waiting to happen.
But let’s start with the good news, eh? Fangraphs.com’s model has the Rockies finishing 64-98, which would be the franchise’s best record since 2022 (68-94). One catch: Fangraphs also predicts Colorado to be facing the toughest strength of schedule of any MLB club, largely because they’re rolling with an American League Central-esque projected payroll ($125 million, per FanGraphs) in a division with the Dodgers ($389 million), Padres ($207 million), Giants ($176 million) and Diamondbacks ($195 million).
Which would explain the other two projections, which aren’t as kind. TeamRankings.com’s system pegs the Rox to lose 103 games, while PECOTA projects a whopping 107 defeats, which would set a new club record, thanks largely to giving up a National League-worst 878 runs. Ezequiel Tovar can’t catch the balls that land on Wewatta.
Jeff Wulbrun’s week at DU — Incomplete
First, the Pioneers’ men’s basketball program didn’t win a game for about five weeks (Dec. 10-Jan. 22). Then DU took two of three from Feb. 13-20. On Friday, Pios announced that coach Jeff Wulbrun, whose squad sported a 10-19 record overall and a 4-10 mark in the Summit League, had been placed on leave and that the program would be helmed by assistant Shammond Williams for the rest of the season. This weekend marked the Pios’ final bye before resuming the regular season on Thursday at Kansas City.
Wulbrun, 64, joined DU in late March 2021, replacing Rodney Billups. Last March, the Pios were a game away from the NCAA tourney, losing to South Dakota State in the Summit championship game, 76-68. Wulbrun has yet to post a winning record at DU, finishing 17-17 last winter and putting up a 53-74 mark (.417) since the start of the 2021-22 season.
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