LAS VEGAS — By the time her plane descends into New Orleans, handicapper and WagerTalk co-owner Kelly Stewart wants to see no snow.
The site of Super Bowl LIX recently had its most significant snowfall since 1895, and Stewart, who now calls Sarasota, Florida, home, dealt with enough of that stuff growing up in Kansas.
I include her among the experts I tapped for proposition insights about the Super Bowl between the two-time defending-champ Chiefs and the Eagles.
If only there were a host-city “snow prop.”
“Better be 0%,” Stewart said.
Weather shouldn’t affect a game to be staged inside the Caesars Superdome, where Stewart expects Eagles tailback Saquon Barkley to be named MVP.
On Wednesday, Barkley’s MVP odds were +240 at BetMGM, +260 at DraftKings and +275 at Circa Sports.
“The last running back to win MVP was when I was in middle school,” Stewart said. “Currently, Barkley has the second-best odds, behind [Chiefs quarterback] Patrick Mahomes, and that’s for a very good reason.
“As someone who loves the Eagles to be able to beat the Chiefs, it will have to be because Barkley has an outstanding game.”
The Broncos’ Terrell Davis, in a 31-24 victory against the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII in San Diego, was the last tailback to win the title tilt’s MVP honors. He ran for 157 yards and three touchdowns.
Barkley led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards this season. In three playoff games, he has gathered 442 yards and five touchdowns. Plus, he turns 28 on Super Sunday.
The Chiefs have yielded more than 151 yards a game over their last three, seventh-worst in the NFL
“We’ve seen his regular-season stats,” Stewart said. “Look for him to be able to exploit the Chiefs’ run defense.”
GOING FOURTH
In keeping with our policy of ladies first, we turn to third-generation Nevada handicapper Alexandra White, a cohost of the South Point’s “Sports by the Book” streaming show who favors fourth downs.
DraftKings set a total of 2.5 fourth-down conversions for both teams, and White likes over at +120, or risk $100 to win $120. Under is -150.
“There’s been an uptick of fourth-down conversion attempts, from three a game to four in the playoffs,” White said. “The median for the 12 playoff games was two, for fourth downs converted. I still like it over.
“We are getting a plus price with a team that invented the brotherly shove. Six of the 12 playoff games had three or more fourth downs converted, and I think both head coaches will be aggressive in the big game.”
At +260, White also has circled a successful two-point conversion.
FIRST, GO LOW
In Boston, BetQL Daily cohost, Fox-Sports.com betting analyst and Chicken Dinner podcast creator Sam Panayotovich likes under 9.5, at +102, for the first-quarter total.
“People generally love to bet on offense in Super Bowls, despite the majority of games starting low and slow,” he said. “KC and Philadelphia have very strong defenses, and the extra week to prepare tends to favor that side of the ball early.
“In the past 10 Super Bowls, there were an average of 6.6 points scored in the opening frame. Trust the math; take the under.”
TAKE TWO
I’m on the last team to score winning the game and the final scoring margin being three points.
The former, at -215 odds, has cashed in the past 18 Super Bowls. The latter is +350. The last three Super Bowls have been decided by three points, as have the last two played in the Superdome.
WAITING GAME
Pro bettor Bill Krackomberger, part of Fox Sports Radio’s Sunday morning preview show, advises wagering under on player props, his tack on 70% of his bets, with a caveat.
“I like to wait closer to game time,” he said, “when the books are focused to move the numbers higher because they have so much ‘over’ volume on the marquee players.”
Barkley has a postseason average of 147.3 yards. At DraftKings, his projected total is 115.5, over -109, under -112. Krackomberger recommends taking under if bettors can nab a total of at least 118.5.
“It isn’t fun to root for [unders],” Krackomberger said. “I get it. But I’m not doing this for fun; I’m doing this for money.”
IT’S A KICK
In Long Island, Tom Barton, handicapper and cohost of the weekend late-night HeatWave sports-betting radio show in Vegas, has zeroed in on Eagles kicker Jake Elliott.
His projected field-goal total is 1.5, and Barton bet over at +110.
“I expect a much better defensive game than most people think,” Barton said, “and KC’s defense has been excellent this year. Elliott had made two or more field goals in six consecutive games, before Washington, and in 13 of 17 this season.
“There should be a few stalled drives, and that will be Elliott time.”
Barton concocted a long-shot angle —
Elliott winning MVP honors, at 100-to-1 odds.
On the season, Harrison Butker of the Chiefs connected on 21 of 25 field-goal attempts, average in the NFL. Elliott (28 of 36, 77.8%) was below average.
“No kicker has ever won Super Bowl MVP,” Barton said, “but if this is a defensive game and field-goal game, maybe he hits one with time expiring? There’s no way they’d give it to [Harrison] Butker [due to politics].
“So that’s the only crazy long shot worth throwing a C-note on.” V