The San Francisco Giants inked future Hall-of-Fame starting pitcher Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15 million contract in mid-January.
The Giants won’t be asking Verlander to be the ace of their pitching staff — a position he served for so many seasons with the Detroit Tigers and then Houston Astros — as they have 2024 All-Star Logan Webb slated at the top of their starting rotation. What fans in the Bay Area are hoping for, however, is a big bounce back campaign from the 2004 draft pick.
After winning his third AL Cy Young Award in 2022 with the Astros, Verlander had a decent first half of the 2023 season with the New York Mets before being traded back to Houston. Verlander finished 2023 with a 13-8 record and solid 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 162 1/3 innings pitched covering 27 starts.
The soon-to-be 42-year-old had an uneven 2024 though, finishing just 5-6 with a career-worst 5.48 ERA over 90 1/3 innings in 17 starts. Verlander battled multiple injuries throughout the year to pitch the fewest innings of his career outside of his two-start MLB debut in 2005 and both the 2020 and 2021 campaigns after he underwent Tommy John surgery following one outing in the pandemic-altered season.
As he prepares for perhaps his final season, the nine-time All-Star hasn’t earned the confidence in a turnaround 2025 from many baseball analysts, including Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter.
Verlander Signing a ‘Recipe For Disappointment’
Reuter included Verlander on his list of “10 Biggest Bust Candidates Among MLB Pitchers for 2025 Season” on Thursday.
The Bleacher Report scribe explained that the hurlers in the post come into the spring as “potential bust candidates due to one or more red flags in their advanced metrics.” Reuter adds that “in some cases, the regression already started during a slow second half on the heels of a great first half.”
Both pieces of the argument apply to “JV.”
Verlander’s 2024 season was delayed until April 19 due to a shoulder injury, but he pitched decently over the next two months, starting 3-2 with a 3.95 ERA across his first 10 outings. The 2011 AL MVP went on the injured list again on June 19 due to shoulder inflammation and returned on Aug. 21.
After allowing six runs over 10 innings in his two starts to close August, Verlander looked every bit like a pitcher in his 40s, allowing a whopping 24 runs on 35 hits over 23 1/3 innings pitched in five September starts.
“A 4.78 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) does suggest Verlander is in line for some positive regression relative to his 5.48 ERA last season, but that’s still a ugly number. His 93.5 mph fastball velocity and 18.7 percent strikeout rate were both career-low marks, and his curveball was absolutely shelled to the tune of a .340 average and .560 slugging percentage,” Reuter wrote. “The 41-year-old has adapted his game as his stuff has diminished, but the fall-off might be too drastic this time around to salvage. From a team standpoint, signing him as the only outside addition to counter the loss of Blake Snell is also a recipe for disappointment.”
Things got so bad for Verlander last fall that he was left off the Astros’ postseason roster. Houston was eliminated by the Detroit Tigers in the AL wild-card series.
Verlander Still a ‘Low-Risk, High-Reward’ Signing
While San Francisco shouldn’t have high expectations for the former AL Rookie of the Year, Reuter argued that the addition could still be a “low-risk, high-reward” signing.
“One of the best pitchers of his generation and a sure-fire future Hall of Famer, Justin Verlander is just two years removed from winning 2022 AL Cy Young honors and a year removed from going 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 162.1 innings in his age-40 season,” he wrote. “He had a season to forget in 2024, but it stands to reason that a pitcher of his caliber would simply hang it up if he believed he didn’t have anything left in the tank. On a one-year, $15 million deal, he represents a low-risk, high-reward addition to the San Francisco Giants rotation.”
Verlander is projected to be the No. 3 starter in the Giants’ group behind Webb and 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray.
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