The 2025 Final Four is the first in 17 years with all four top seeds participating and could be one of the most memorable in history, unless it morphs into a next-level display of singular dominance.
For all the breathless anticipation that Florida, Auburn, Houston and Duke will produce a riveting semifinal doubleheader that offsets what otherwise has been an unremarkable March Madness, there is another possibility: The Blue Devils are in a class of their own.
They have not lost since early February and rolled through four rounds with a masterful display on both ends of the court (average victory margin: 23.5 points). At no point were they in jeopardy of losing to either Arizona in the Sweet 16 or Alabama in the Elite Eight.
Unlike their fellow semifinalists, the Blue Devils are ranked in the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to the Pomeroy Ratings, which measure points scored and allowed per possession (adjusted for opponents).
Unlike their fellow semifinalists, they have the best player in the country in forward Cooper Flagg, who just might be the most polished, versatile and gifted freshman the sport has ever seen.
Unlike their fellow semifinalists, they have two other starters slotted for the lottery portion of the NBA Draft in 7-foot-2 rim protector Khaman Maluach and crafty wing Kon Knueppel.
Put another way: Duke has three players projected for the lottery; Florida, Auburn and Houston have no players currently pegged for the first round.
Talent matters during the regular season, but injuries, coaching tactics and player motivation are equally important over the four-month grind.
In the early rounds of the NCAAs, personnel takes on added importance but doesn’t always trump strategy or bad bounces.
In the Final Four, talent is everything.
Duke has more — much more — than its counterparts in San Antonio.
With the No. 1s hosting a private party, the end result will be either a Final Four to remember or, if Duke dominates, a team for the ages.
To the picks …
Sweet 16: 1-4NCAA total: 10-11Five-star special: 1-2
All picks against the spreadLines taken from vegasinsider.com
Auburn (+2.5) over FloridaTipoff: Saturday at 3:09 p.m. on CBSComment: The all-SEC semifinal features the conference’s regular-season winner (Auburn) and the tournament champion (Florida). The Gators won the only head-to-head meeting during the regular season (by nine points at Auburn), but the Tigers have located the urgency they used to blast through the opening months of the season. All signs point to an All-American showdown between Auburn big man Johni Broome and Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr., but we wonder if the outcome hinges on which role players assert themselves in the final five minutes. Advantage: Auburn.
Duke (-5.5) over HoustonTipoff: Saturday at 5:49 on CBSComment: It’s not accurate to portray this as a matchup of Duke’s skill against Houston’s chaos, because the Cougars are highly skilled — to a greater degree than Kelvin Sampson’s previous teams. But they are heavily reliant on wing L.J. Cryer for perimeter production. If he struggles, the Cougars will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the Blue Devils. Defensively, Houston’s pressures, traps and pick-and-roll switches will face their greatest challenge in Flagg, who is 6-foot-9, handles the ball like a point guard and generally wrecks whatever gameplan an opponent concocts. We also would note that three Duke players have produced 20-point games in the NCAAs thus far: Flagg, Knueppel and guard Tyrese Proctor. (Don’t forget about Proctor.)
Straight-up winners: Auburn and Duke
Five-star special: Duke. We aren’t prepared to conclude this edition of the Blue Devils belongs on the same tier as the best in school history. But that point is fast approaching.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline